Resources

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s first year in office has seen the continued activities of armed non-state actors despite adopting kinetic and non-kinetic measures to combat insecurity. In his first year (May 29, 2023, to May 29, 2024), Nextier’s Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database recorded 3,959 casualties (3,444 deaths and 515 injured persons) and 2,691 kidnap victims from 1,095 violent incidents across the country. From the data, his first year records an average of three violent incidents, resulting in ten casualties and seven kidnap victims daily.

Compared to previous years, the Tinubu administration recorded the second-lowest violent conflict incidents (1,095) but with the second-highest kidnap count (2,691). Regardless, the toll of the violence continues to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, leading to a vicious cycle of humanitarian tragedies and unending terror.

This report captures the trend of violent conflicts in Nigeria to help security stakeholders make sense of the security challenges in President Tinubu’s first twelve months in office. As Nigeria navigates its complex security landscape, President Tinubu’s administration remains committed to securing the nation.

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Battlefields and Ballots: Nigeria in 2023 and Q1 2024 is a comprehensive analysis based on Nextier’s Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database data. It examines the violent conflict landscape across Nigeria during 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.

The report is a deep dive into the various patterns and trends of violent conflicts in Nigeria. It sheds light on the causes and consequences of violent incidents in the country. It encompasses a broad range of data, from violent conflict hotspots to the social and political factors contributing to these situations.

Whether you are a policy maker, researcher, or advocate, this report is vital for understanding the country’s evolving security environment. 

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Illegal mining is today ascribed to fuelling armed conflicts such as banditry and terrorism in Nigeria. In affirmation, President Bola Tinubu reiterated the known fact during the 2024 African High-level Meeting on Counterterrorism that illegal mining is linked to terrorism financing. He linked the relentless financing network of terrorist organisations to illegal mining in various sites in the country. Illegal mining sites in Nigeria have attracted cutthroat attention from criminal groups and altered socio-economic activities in such locations, leading to armed fighting and instability. With the country losing about $9 billion annually to illegal mining, it agitates the minds as to where the proceeds of the illegal mining go to and why some states in Northern Nigeria with illicit high-scale mining activities are also the states with the highest amount of incidents of banditry, kidnapping and armed violence. These states are mainly Zamfara, Kaduna, Kastina, Niger and Plateau. Illegal mining has continued to sustain criminal networks in the affected communities as well as drive violent conflicts among local solid mineral-bearing and impacted communities. Also, in many instances, bandits have taken over the running of the illegal mining sites, forcing the locals to work for them.

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The complexity that the African continent is faced with regarding disarmament is deeply rooted in the inability to curb small arms and light weapons trafficking, which has fuelled various conflicts through misuse by state and non-state actors. Despite regional initiatives and civil society projects, arms proliferation and misuse are rising. It can be viewed from the perspective that some West African states have liberalised gun possession laws, arming paramilitary groups, which often facilitate arms diffusion, an unintended consequence. Also, the inability and fragmentation of West African States have limited the capacity of states to enforce a clear boundary between illicit and legal markets.

In light of the above, this policy brief analyses the webinar on disarmament complexities in Africa and proposes key measures to address these challenges effectively.

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Banditry heightens the insecurity in the Northwest. This scenario has persisted, resulting in short-to-long-term economic challenges, displacements, the loss of lives and livelihoods, and a humanitarian crisis. The region comprises seven states (Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Jigawa). Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, and Sokoto states are the most impacted by conflict, while neighbouring Kano, Jigawa, and Kebbi are less affected. This situation has elicited conversations on why certain states are not as affected. According to the governor of Jigawa, “The atrocities are not being recorded in Jigawa because successive governments of the state in the Fourth Republic have sustained a policy that addressed the roots of banditry”. He stated that his government has continued previous initiatives to build grazing paths for livestock, supply water, and enrol children of herders in schools to give them a sense of belonging and foster inclusion.

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Over 60,000 lives were lost to Nigeria’s security challenges in the last decade. Violent conflicts such as insurgency, banditry, farmer-herder disputes, gang wars and separatist agitations have continued to afflict the country. These issues have led to killings, property destruction, worsening poverty, and displacement. According to John Campell and Robert Rotberg (2021), “if a state’s first obligation is to provide security and maintain a monopoly on the use of violence, then Nigeria has failed, even if some other aspects of the state still function.” For them, the unchecked violence perpetrated by several criminal groups increasingly threatens the government’s grip on power.

Several socio-economic and political factors predisposed Nigeria to the current violent conflict profile. Some include arms proliferation, high unemployment, poverty rate, the politicisation of security agencies, and the misappropriation of resources. The culture of impunity among public officers propels a lack of accountability, misgovernance and failed institutions. Although the Nigerian government is implementing numerous measures to address these security concerns, the issues are still prevalent.

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Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential and National Assembly elections have been trailed by victories, losses, pockets of violence, resentments and intense post-election reflections. There is a new focus on the Gubernatorial and State Assembly elections scheduled for March 18, 2023. This focus is burdened by several tales of election-related violence and perceptions of electoral malpractice reported during Nigeria’s 2023 presidential and national assembly polls. Although several states may share peculiarities regarding security threats, instances of election and post-election violence may play out differently. The strength of the political parties determines the nature of the violence. States with one dominant political party with control of the state government and state assembly will likely experience less violence than states with two dominant political parties (often referred to as swing states), where either of the parties could likely win. In such swing states, violence is usually deployed at a large scale.

Reflecting on Saturday, February 25 2023, polls will help relevant stakeholders to draw lessons and projections in the build-up of the March 18, 2023, elections. In this report, potential hotspots have been identified by states where election-related violence has been recorded in recent months and previous election cycles. Essentially, this analysis is a rigorous attempt to recommend solutions to violence-free gubernatorial and state assembly polls by analysing past incidents and current realities.

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Political vigilantism is a global phenomenon. Political vigilantes, sometimes called “footsoldiers,” refers to resorting to illegal means to achieve local political objectives. The practice originated in the United States in the late 1700s, but in recent years, many countries, including South Africa, Ghana, and Tanzania, have experienced incidents of political vigilantism. Nigeria is also not immune to this problem. Since the country returned to democratic rule in 1999, political vigilantism has pervaded Nigeria’s political landscape. Political actors, whether in government or the opposition, are known to form and use violent individuals or groups, referred to as vigilantes, who ‘take the law into their hands’ and perpetrate violence. The vigilantes are more than hired political thugs; they include non-state armed groups who operate at the local and state level.

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Nigeria’s general elections will kick off on the 25th of February 2023 against the backdrop of security and economic challenges. In the last couple of months leading to the polls, political declarations, primary elections, peace accords, court cases, and campaign promises have been the order of the day. These activities have intensified political conversations and, in some cases, violence among party officials and supporters. Even ordinary residents are not left out in the wake of campaigns and campaign-related violence. Anecdotal accounts of many Nigerians about the election reflect renewed political consciousness, uncertainties about the credibility of the polls, and their preferred choice of candidates and parties.

The report adopts a regional overview style comprising Nigeria’s six geo-political zones. The regional overview approach gives context-specific data and information on existing conflicts, actors, and their likely involvement in the polls. It also itemises the causes and consequences of post-election violence. Finally, tailored recommendations to help navigate the possibilities of electoral violence have been provided in the report.

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