Daily Analysis

The ongoing insurgency led by Boko Haram and other extremist groups has turned Borno State in North Eastern Nigeria into a centre of conflict and displacement. Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps have been a sanctuary for hundreds of thousands of people forced to flee their homes. However, in the past four years, the government of Borno State has made it a mission to shut down these camps. The government cites several reasons for the closure of IDP camps in Borno State. Primarily, there are significant security concerns. The camps have become security liabilities, with insurgents often infiltrating them, posing risks to both the displaced persons and the broader community. The government believes shutting down these camps is necessary to prevent further security breaches. Another reason for the shutdown is the government’s far-reaching goal of reintegration and rehabilitation. Authorities are keen to encourage IDPs to return to their home communities to rebuild their lives, aiming to foster long-term stability and development.

The closure of IDP camps has both positive and negative consequences. On the positive side, returning IDPs can contribute to their home communities’ reconstruction and economic revitalisation. Encouraging self-reliance can foster resilience and reduce the long-term burden on humanitarian aid organisations. Also, adequately managed returns can improve security by decreasing the concentration of vulnerable populations in target areas. However, there are significant adverse outcomes as well. Many home communities remain unsafe and lack essential services, making it difficult for returnees to reintegrate successfully. Without sufficient support, returnees may face heightened vulnerability to poverty, food insecurity, and lack of access to healthcare and education. In some cases, if conditions in home communities remain dire, returnees may be forced to flee again, leading to secondary displacement. The influx of returnees can also strain limited resources in home communities, potentially exacerbating tensions and conflicts.

The closure of IDP camps, coupled with the occasional threats from jihadists forcing citizens out of their communities, has created a challenging situation for the persons affected by the crises. The Borno state government is seemingly tired of the security issues that plague the state. However, pretending the problem does not exist whilst calling for the reintegration of displaced citizens is not the solution. Primarily not when attacks are still being carried out in the region. The international community and humanitarian organisations have expressed concern about the premature closure of IDP camps. They call for a more gradual and carefully planned approach to ensure that returnees are adequately supported. There is also a push for increased funding and resources to bolster the capacity of home communities to absorb returnees and provide them with the necessary services. The shutdown of IDP camps in Borno State is a complex issue with significant implications for the displaced population and the region. While the government’s intentions to enhance security and foster self-reliance are understandable, the process must be handled with great care to avoid exacerbating the suffering of vulnerable populations. In handling the situation, patience and a robust security strategy are needed on the government’s part to ensure violent actors are weakened to their roots. A balanced approach that combines immediate humanitarian assistance with long-term development and security measures is crucial to ensuring a successful transition for IDPs returning to their home communities. Making Borno state safe once more will take gruelling effort and time. Without both sacrifices, the fight against the jihadists is bound to become a more prolonged duel for Nigerians.

Nigeria is experiencing floods as is often during the rainy season. The country’s vast river systems, including the Niger and Benue Rivers, are prone to overflowing during the rainy season. As such, the 2024 floods and the devastation loom large. Historically, states like Lagos, Rivers, Bayelsa, and Kogi have been ravaged by floods, but this year, the disaster extended to regions previously considered safe. Torrential rains and overflowing rivers submerged vast areas, affecting millions of people and causing widespread destruction. The floods highlight the urgent need for improved infrastructure, disaster preparedness, and climate change mitigation.

The 2024 floods began in early June, following weeks of incessant rainfall. By mid-June, many rivers had breached their banks, causing widespread flooding. According to Nigeria’s Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Engr Joseph Utsev, 21 Local Government Areas have been submerged by flood in ten states and the Federal Capital Territory. In Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital, water levels rose to unprecedented heights, submerging entire neighbourhoods. Ikorodu, Lagos Island and Ibeju-Lekki, a densely populated area, were particularly hard hit, with residents forced to flee their homes as floodwaters engulfed streets and buildings. In Lugbe district of the Federal Capital Territory, a torrential downpour in the early hours of June 24, 2024, resulted in the flooding of Trademore estate, where several houses were submerged and two deaths were reported. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency has listed Kogi as one of the states expected to experience flooding during the rainy season. Predictions also reveal that the opening of the Lagdo Dam later this year would significantly impact the state.

Floods in Nigeria have wide-ranging impacts. One of the most profound is the displacement and humanitarian crisis that comes with it. Displaced populations face challenges accessing clean water, sanitation facilities, and healthcare services. According to the National Emergency Management Agency, the 2023 flood  affected ten states in Nigeria, displacing over 7,000 people and injuring 75 with five casualties. Loss of lives and livelihoods have always accompanied flooding, while livelihoods dependent on agriculture, small businesses, and daily wage labourers are direly affected. The Federal Government has warned that the increasing flooding and continuous rainfall may worsen the country’s cholera spread.

Factors such as heavy rainfall, poor urban planning and deforestation are key factors contributing to the floods. Poor urban planning and inadequate drainage systems have compounded the problem. In cities like Lagos and Port Harcourt, rapid urbanisation has led to the construction of buildings in flood-prone areas without proper drainage infrastructure. This has resulted in waterlogging and increased vulnerability to flooding. Environmental degradation, such as deforestation and the destruction of wetlands, has also reduced the land’s natural ability to absorb and manage floodwaters.

The Nigerian government and international aid organisations have provided relief during the flood crisis. Temporary shelters, food supplies, and medical aid were distributed to affected communities. The government set up several camps in Benue State to accommodate displaced persons. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) coordinated efforts with state governments and NGOs to ensure relief reached those in need. In the Federal Capital Territory, the Federal Capital Territory Administration (FCTA) declared Trademore Estate Abuja a disaster zone. In a bid to remedy the flooding of the areas, 116 houses were marked for demolition because they were built on waterways; however, a court injunction obtained by residents of the estate restrained any action.

Over the years, international organisations such as the Red Cross and UNICEF have played a crucial role as they provided essential supplies, including clean water, sanitation facilities, and medical care. In Borno State, where the ongoing conflict has already displaced many people, the floods historically added to the humanitarian crisis. Relief agencies worked tirelessly to provide support despite the challenging conditions. In Lagos, a major project to upgrade the city’s drainage network commenced in April 2024. This includes the construction of new channels and the rehabilitation of existing ones to enhance water flow and reduce flooding. The initiative poses a significant step towards averting potential disasters and ensuring the safety of residents in the region. Community-based initiatives are also crucial.

The 2024 floods have highlighted the urgent need for a coordinated and sustained effort to address the challenges posed by climate change and environmental degradation. Disaster risk management professionals have recommended that the Nigerian government implement several measures to manage the recurring crisis. Regular dredging would solve the annual displacement of people from their homes and the destruction of their livelihoods. This requires collaboration between the federal and state governments and citizens alike.

 Nigeria must drive public and private investment in building disaster-resilient communities by building physical infrastructures that can withstand disasters and ensuring proper maintenance. The government must also invest in the people by building the capacity of the local people to understand and implement disaster risk reduction strategies in the communities to reduce anthropogenic factors contributing to disasters such as flooding. There is also a need for the National Emergency Management Agency and the State Emergency Management Agency to increase efforts towards deployment of personnel, improved equipment, and staff training in disaster management, including evacuation and care for the displaced. As Nigeria faces this disaster, it is imperative that the nation takes steps to build resilience and reduce future risks.

Recommended Reading:

• Floods: Nigeria submerged
• A Harvest of Floods in Nigeria: Institutional and Governance Gaps in Nigeria’s Disaster Risk Management
• Harvest of Floods

An idyllic ceremony in Gwoza, Borno State, Nigeria, descended into horror on June 29. A suicide bomber ripped through a wedding party, initiating a horrific sequence of coordinated blasts that claimed at least 32 lives and further cast a long shadow over Nigeria’s fight for stability. While Boko Haram and its splinter group, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), remain the prime suspects, given their operations in the region, the attack exposes the groups’ enduring threat and the fragility of progress against wider insecurity. The Gwoza bombings were particularly chilling due to their targeting. The first blast was at a wedding, followed by attacks on a hospital treating the injured and a funeral for the victims. The calculated brutality designed to inflict carnage and sow fear aligns with terrorism tactics in Nigeria, fatal risks despite military pressure.

The attack also highlights a concerning trend: the insurgents’ ability to operate in remote areas. Gwoza lies near the Cameroon border, a region with porous security and a known terrorist group hideout. This geographic advantage allows the insurgents to regroup, plan attacks, and exploit lapses in vigilance. The Gowza bombing is not an isolated incident but part of a broader pattern of violence that has plagued Nigeria’s North East region for over a decade. Despite significant military campaigns and international assistance, Boko Haram and ISWAP continue to wield considerable influence. Their ability to launch sophisticated attacks suggests that they remain resilient and capable of adapting to security measures.

The impact of continued terror attacks on Nigeria’s security landscape is undeniable. The bombings erode public trust in the government’s ability to safeguard its citizens. Additionally, targeting a hospital reflects a disregard for the humanitarian space, potentially deterring aid workers from operating in high-risk zones. The Nigerian government has made notable strides in counter-terrorism efforts, such as reclaiming territory once held by insurgents and disrupting their supply lines. However, these successes are often undermined by the insurgents’ ability to exploit local grievances and governance gaps. The porous borders with Chad, Niger, and Cameroon, and even more recently, the Benin border, further complicate efforts to contain the threat, allowing militants to retreat and regroup with relative ease.

Projecting Nigeria’s security future remains a complex task. While the military has made strides against terrorism, the insurgency’s capacity for adaptation and its continued access to safe havens pose a significant challenge. Projections from Nextier’s Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database 2023 and Q1 2024 reports showed a potential increase in ISWAP’s activities in Borno State, as well as potential spillovers from other African countries. These projections are proving true, given various attacks and reports to their effect.  While significant efforts have been made to combat terrorism in Nigeria, its trajectory in 2024 remains uncertain. Several key factors will likely influence the situation such as the security of its multiple borders. According to a report by the Netherlands Institute of International Relations, armed insurgents from the Benin Republic have infiltrated North West Nigeria, showing the capacity to deploy coordinated attacks in the region. Nigeria’s vast land borders, particularly in the North East, pose a challenge. Increased patrols, improved surveillance technology (drones, cameras), and better coordination with local communities can help plug these gaps. Boko Haram and other terrorist groups often operate in remote areas. Infiltrating these networks and gathering actionable intelligence is crucial for proactive counter-terrorism operations. Investing more in human intelligence networks and advanced analytical capabilities can significantly improve outcomes. Terrorism in Nigeria thrives on its ability to operate across porous borders with neighbouring countries like Chad and Cameroon. Enhanced intelligence sharing, joint military operations, and coordinated border security measures can significantly disrupt their activities.

Nigeria’s fight against terrorism cannot be won alone. Supporting regional initiatives, such as the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), and fostering closer collaboration with regional security bodies like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are also crucial in the fight against terrorism in the region. Additionally, poverty and lack of opportunity are also breeding grounds for radicalisation. Targeted economic development programmes and improved access to education and healthcare, especially in the North East, can create a more resilient population. Terrorist groups often exploit feelings of grievance and social injustice. Promoting interfaith dialogue, amplifying positive narratives around peaceful coexistence, and fostering a sense of national identity can counter their propaganda.

The Gwoza attack serves as a stark reminder of the immense human cost of Nigeria’s security challenges.  Silencing these bombs requires a sustained approach that tackles the root causes of insurgency alongside robust military action.  This fight demands national unity and international cooperation.  Nigeria can forge a more secure future for its people by addressing social and economic grievances while bolstering security measures. Only through this comprehensive effort can hope blossom from the ashes of violence.

Kenya and Nigeria have witnessed significant protests in recent years that have garnered international attention. Kenyan protests erupted over economic hardships and political grievances, while in Nigeria, the #EndSARS movement highlighted issues of police brutality and governance. The protests in Kenya, notably the 2023 demonstrations, were primarily driven by economic challenges and political dissatisfaction. High inflation rates, unemployment, and the government’s failure to address these issues fuelled public outrage. More recently, there have been widespread violent protests in Kenya. These have been instigated by attempts by the government to pass a new finance bill that would entail tax increases on some essential items. This illustrates vividly the delicate relationship between democratic governance, economic crisis, perceived corruption, deepening poverty, and political stability in several African countries. 

In Nigeria, the #EndSARS protests of 2020 were sparked by years of frustration with the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), a police unit notorious for human rights abuses. The movement quickly evolved to address broader governance, corruption, and economic mismanagement issues. The protests, largely driven by the youth, culminated in the tragic Lekki Toll Gate incident, where security forces allegedly opened fire on unarmed protesters. Both Kenya and Nigeria face significant economic challenges that have contributed to civil unrest. In Kenya, inflation rates soared to over 9% in 2023, with food prices increasing by 15% year-on-year, putting immense pressure on household budgets. Similarly, Nigeria’s economy has been plagued by inflation, unemployment, and a dependence on oil exports, which make it vulnerable to global market fluctuations. Economic hardship in both countries has been a major catalyst for protests, as citizens demand better living conditions and job opportunities.

The political environments in Kenya and Nigeria are marked by corruption, ineffective governance, and public distrust. In Kenya, allegations of electoral fraud and corruption have been persistent issues. The government’s inability to address these grievances has fuelled public anger. In Nigeria, the political landscape is similarly fraught with corruption scandals and a lack of transparency. The #EndSARS movement highlighted not just police brutality but also the broader failures of the Nigerian government to provide security and justice for its citizens. Social media has played a crucial role in mobilising and spreading protests in both countries. In Kenya, platforms like Twitter and Facebook were instrumental in organising protests and sharing real-time updates. Hashtags such as #KenyaProtests and #ChangeKe became rallying points for demonstrators. Similarly, in Nigeria, the #EndSARS movement was significantly amplified by social media, with millions of tweets and posts bringing global attention to the issue. Social media also helped in documenting police brutality and coordinating support from the diaspora.

The governments of Kenya and Nigeria have responded differently to protests. In Kenya, the government has employed a combination of negotiation and force. While there have been instances of police brutality, the government has also attempted to address some of the protesters’ demands through dialogue and policy adjustments. In contrast, the Nigerian government’s response to the #EndSARS protests was marked by a heavy-handed approach. The use of military force at the Lekki Toll Gate and subsequent denials of responsibility drew widespread condemnation both domestically and internationally. The level of public engagement in protests varies between the two countries. In Kenya, protests have seen diverse participation from various segments of society, including students, workers, and political activists. However, the June 2024 protests have been largely youth-driven. In Nigeria, the #EndSARS movement was predominantly youth-driven, reflecting the frustration of the younger generation with systemic issues and their desire for change.

One notable incident during the Kenyan protests was the demonstration on Nairobi’s streets in July 2023, where thousands gathered to protest against rising living costs and political corruption. The protests saw a mix of peaceful demonstrations and clashes with police, highlighting the tensions between citizens and the state. This is similar to the June 2024 protests in Kenya, where there has also been vandalism to government assets. The #EndSARS protests in Lagos in October 2020 serve as a key case study. What began as a peaceful demonstration against police brutality escalated into a national movement. The Lekki Toll Gate incident, where security forces reportedly fired on unarmed protesters, became a symbol of the Nigerian government’s oppressive tactics and sparked international outrage. The protests in both Kenya and Nigeria have had significant impacts. In Kenya, the government has shown a willingness to engage in dialogue and address some economic issues. In Nigeria, the #EndSARS protests led to the disbandment of SARS and initiated a broader conversation on police reform and governance. Successful strategies used by protesters in both countries include the effective use of social media, international advocacy, and grassroots mobilisation. Kenyan protesters can learn from Nigeria’s youth-driven, tech-savvy approach, while Nigerian activists can benefit from Kenya’s diverse coalition-building.

Looking forward, both Kenya and Nigeria face the challenge of addressing the underlying issues that drive protests. For Kenya, this means tackling economic reforms and ensuring transparent governance. For Nigeria, comprehensive police reform and addressing broader governance issues are critical. By learning from each other’s experiences, both countries can develop more effective strategies to address these issues and improve the lives of their citizens. The role of social media, public engagement, and government responses will continue to shape the future of protests in these nations and beyond.

Nigeria continues to grapple with a deep-seated security crisis. From terrorism in the North East, characterised by bombings, banditry and kidnappings in the North West, to the burgeoning issue of organised violent crimes in urban areas. The Nigerian government’s current approach has been largely reactive, deploying military and police forces to quell unrest. However, these efforts are often hampered by inadequate intelligence, leading to inefficiencies and, at times, counterproductive outcomes. A robust intelligence-gathering capability is the bedrock of any effective response to these threats. At the heart of these challenges lies a critical vulnerability: a deficit in intelligence gathering.

The current intelligence landscape is fragmented. Multiple agencies – the Department of State Services (SSS), Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), National Intelligence Agency (NIA) and the Federal Investigations and Intelligence Bureau (FIIB) – possess mandates for intelligence gathering. However, persistent insecurity, as well as events such as the accidental military bombing of some communities across the country, suggests that a lack of coordination and information sharing hinders the effectiveness of these agencies. Furthermore, traditional methods – reliant on human intelligence (HUMINT) networks – struggle to penetrate the increasingly sophisticated and tech-savvy criminal underworld. Cybercrime and the proliferation of encrypted communications further impede traditional methods.

In the digital age, technology is an indispensable tool for intelligence gathering. Nigeria must allocate even more resources to advanced surveillance systems, including high-resolution drones, satellite imagery, and sophisticated cyber intelligence tools. These technologies can provide real-time data and actionable insights, essential for tracking and neutralising threats. For instance, drones can be deployed to monitor remote areas where insurgents and bandits operate, providing live feeds to security forces. Similarly, satellite imagery can help map regions of interest and detect unusual activities. On the cyber front, Nigeria must develop capabilities to monitor online communications, track financial transactions, and gather intelligence within the bounds of the law from social media platforms where criminals may coordinate their activities.

Technology alone is insufficient without skilled personnel to operate and interpret the data. Nigeria must invest in training its security forces and intelligence agencies. This involves technical training and education in modern intelligence techniques and methodologies. International partnerships can play a crucial role here. Investing in personnel training is also vital. Intelligence officers require specialised skills in cyber forensics, open-source intelligence (OSINT) collection, and advanced interrogation techniques. Language training, particularly in local dialects, is also essential for navigating Nigeria’s diverse environment. Collaborations with countries experienced in counter-terrorism and intelligence, such as the United States, Belgium, and Israel, can provide Nigerian forces with the necessary expertise. Programmes that facilitate the exchange of knowledge and best practices will be invaluable.

One of the persistent challenges in Nigeria’s security landscape is the lack of coordination among various agencies. The police, military, Department of State Services (DSS), and other intelligence bodies often operate in silos, leading to duplication of efforts and gaps in intelligence. Creating a centralised intelligence coordination centre empowered to break down bureaucratic barriers and ensure seamless intelligence flow is crucial. Such a centre would ensure seamless sharing of information and resources, fostering a more cohesive and effective response to security threats. Regular joint training exercises and establishing a unified communication platform are critical to improving inter-agency collaboration.

Intelligence gathering is not a spectator sport. While technology and formal training are crucial, human intelligence (HUMINT) is invaluable to effective intelligence gathering. While intelligence gathering relies on strong relationships with residents, navigating current public distrust requires proactive efforts. Community engagement programmes like citizen academies and neighbourhood watch groups can foster positive interactions and act as an early warning mechanism to tackle insecurity proactively. Transparency in investigations and acknowledging past mistakes can also help. By actively listening to community concerns and ensuring fair treatment, law enforcement can establish local intelligence cells that collaborate effectively, ultimately improving citizens’ safety and security.

Furthermore, incentivising civilians to report suspicious activities can significantly enhance intelligence efforts. Building intelligence capabilities must be balanced with respect for civil liberties and human rights. Unchecked surveillance and a disregard for civil liberties can erode public trust and hinder cooperation. Striking the right balance between security and liberty is paramount. Clear legal frameworks should govern intelligence operations to prevent abuses and ensure accountability. Oversight mechanisms, such as parliamentary committees and independent watchdogs, can help maintain this balance.

Nigeria’s journey towards stability and security hinges on its ability to effectively gather and utilise intelligence. Nigeria can build a formidable intelligence apparatus by leveraging technology, enhancing training, fostering inter-agency collaboration, and engaging with communities. This will help tackle current security challenges and lay the foundation for a more peaceful and prosperous future. The road ahead is arduous, but with strategic investments and a commitment to reform, Nigeria can transform its intelligence capabilities and, in turn, its security landscape. The dividends of such an investment will be far-reaching, offering hope for a nation yearning for peace and stability.

Over the years, Nigeria’s population has grown and so has its economy. Despite the growth of the nation’s economy, formal job opportunities have remained scarce, causing the informal sector/grey market to grow in size. The informal sector is an unregulated and untaxed market majorly made up of small-scale businesses. The informal sector constitutes many of Nigeria’s employed citizens. Many Nigerians are traders, street vendors and handymen; the downside is that they are untaxable and untraceable. Several factors are responsible for the increase in the informal sector – Illiteracy, unemployability, and lack of effective regulation. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the informal sector accounted for about 57.7% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022. The ability of the informal sector to contribute such a large percentage shows how much economic gain Nigeria could be missing out on due to its failure to regularise the sector.

It is vital that development policies and implementation match the growing speed of a nation’s population. According to the United Nations Population Fund, Nigeria’s inhabitants stand at 229.2 million. In a situation where a country fails to match development speed with its steadily increasing occupants, the result is not enough formally regulated jobs and an abysmal informal sector. This sector is critical to Nigeria’s growth and the sustenance of the populace. Many families and their wards depend on proceeds acquired from informal employment. The National Bureau of Statistics, in their Nigeria Labour Force Survey for Q4 2022, stated that the rate of informally employed Nigerians among the employed population was 93.5%. Despite the good this does for Nigeria’s economy, the downside is that many jobs in the informal market are low productivity, meaning that they do not play a significant role in the overall development of the nation’s economy, only sustain it.

In a country like Nigeria, where even the formal markets suffer poor amenities, informal markets can become an exhausting cycle, never really growing nor gaining more to do anything other than survive. In formalising the informal sector, it is essential to use tax incentives. Rigid tax policies discourage informal employees from registering their businesses in the formal sector. Ensuring that microfinance banks are available for flexible loan options is also essential. However, judging from Nigeria’s past attempts to regularise the informal market, these steps can only take us so far. Fundamental strides are required to transform the Nigerian informal sector tangibly. The government must invest in the educational sector to build a more literate population. Government, investors and relevant stakeholders must also look towards expanding formal markets to create more job opportunities for Nigerians as well. The journey to maximising the informal market and balancing it out against its formal counterpart is long, but this can be achieved with the consistent implementation of thorough economic policies that target the formal integration of the informal market.

The Sahel region of Africa has become synonymous with insecurity. The region, which stretches from Senegal to Sudan in the West and East, historically has experienced rich cultural exchanges and economic interactions. However, its recent history is increasingly linked with violence and instability. Amid these disturbances, middle-power countries have gained footing and are playing increasingly important roles in shaping the security dynamics of the region.

Many factors contribute to insecurity in the Sahel. One primary cause is the presence of extremist groups. These organisations, including Boko Haram, AQIM (Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb), and ISGS (Islamic State in the Greater Sahara), have taken advantage of weak governance, porous borders and socio-economic vulnerabilities of the area to establish their bases. Consequently, such groups engage in cross-border attacks, kidnappings and illegal trade. The issue is worsened by communal clashes. Competition for scarce resources like water and arable land has intensified conflicts between ethnic and communal groups. Climate change has exacerbated these tensions by increasing desertification and reducing agricultural productivity. Weak institutions, corruption, and limited capacity to deliver public services also plague many Sahelian states. The governance vacuum creates an environment where extremist groups thrive, offering services and security that the state fails to provide. This lack of effective governance also hinders international stabilisation efforts as foreign interventions struggle to find strong local partnerships and legitimacy.

In response to the escalating crisis, various middle powers have increased their involvement in the Sahel. While not possessing the global reach of superpowers like the United States or China, these countries exert significant influence through regional initiatives, diplomatic efforts, and security cooperation. Key middle powers involved in the Sahel include Turkey, Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia, each with distinct motives and strategies. Iran has made progress in establishing cooperation agreements with nations such as Burkina Faso and Mali. Despite its revolutionary rhetoric and anti-imperialist position, there is uncertainty about Iran’s capacity to deliver its pledges due to budgetary restrictions and geopolitical problems, raising questions about the degree of its influence in the Sahel.

Turkey has also emerged as a significant player in the Sahel in recent years, leveraging its historical ties and growing economic interests. Ankara has established a network of regional diplomatic missions and development projects. Turkish involvement includes a mix of humanitarian aid, infrastructure development, and religious outreach through organisations like the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) and the Diyanet, Turkey’s spiritual authority. Turkey’s strategy in the Sahel is part of its broader ambition to expand its influence in Africa. By positioning itself as a partner in development and a supporter of local governance structures, Turkey aims to build long-term relationships that enhance its geopolitical standing and economic opportunities.

Saudi Arabia’s engagement in the Sahel is primarily driven by its interests in countering extremist ideologies and expanding its influence in the Muslim world. Through financial aid and religious institutions, Saudi Arabia has supported various initiatives to promote regional stability and development. The Saudi Fund for Development has financed numerous projects, including schools, hospitals, and infrastructure improvements. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has sought to counteract the influence of rival regional powers, particularly Iran, by fostering strong ties with Sahelian governments and promoting its version of Islamic practice. This soft power approach complements its broader strategic objectives in the region and helps to curb the spread of extremist ideologies that could threaten its interests.

The involvement of middle powers in the Sahel brings both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, their engagement can provide much-needed resources, expertise, and international attention to the region’s crisis. On the other hand, the competing interests of these powers can complicate coordination efforts and exacerbate local tensions. Practical international cooperation is essential for addressing the challenges of the Sahel. However, sustainable peace and stability in the Sahel will ultimately depend on strengthening local governance, addressing socio-economic inequalities, and fostering inclusive political processes. The growing influence of middle powers in the Sahel reflects the globalised nature of contemporary security challenges and the interconnectedness of regional and international actors. While their involvement presents opportunities for positive change, it also underscores the need for coherent and collaborative strategies that prioritise the needs of the Sahelian people.

A shadow economy thrives in Nigeria, fuelled not by entrepreneurs or traders but by bandits. Northwest and northcentral Nigeria are hotbeds for such actors. These armed groups have established quasi-governments, imposing taxes on vulnerable communities, adding an economic stranglehold to the existing reign of terror. These “taxes” are often enforced with brutal violence or threat of it, compelling compliance through fear. The sums demanded can range from a few thousand naira to several million, irrespective of the community’s perceived wealth. Failure to pay can result in abduction, destruction of property or even death. Most recently, residents of Torough community in Ukum Local Government Area of Benue State were slammed with a ₦20 million tax, prompting them to sell off their farm produce to raise funds. This “bandit tax” disrupts livelihoods, weakens the state’s authority, and threatens to fester into a full-blown criminal insurgency.

While this extortionate practice is not new, it escalates, raising urgent questions about the state’s capacity to military-grade hardware and target villages dependent on agriculture and livestock. Their modus operandi involves surrounding a community, issuing threats, and demanding exorbitant sums—often a significant portion of the harvest or herd. Failure to comply is met with violence, including kidnapping, mutilation, and even death. Disturbingly, the bandits’ taxation system is highly organised. Reports indicate that these groups maintain detailed records of their “taxpayers” and employ scouts to monitor and enforce collections. This systematic approach underscores these criminal enterprises’ sophistication and deep entrenchment in the rural economy.

The practice of bandit taxation carries dire security implications. By extorting money from communities, bandits effectively weaken their trust in the state’s ability to provide protection. This fosters a dangerous environment where the rule of law crumbles and bandit authority reigns supreme. Incapable of guaranteeing safety, the legitimacy of official institutions is undermined, further emboldening these criminal groups. Seeing the state’s inability to provide security or justice, communities may increasingly turn to these groups for protection, further entrenching the bandits’ power. The extorted funds then fuel a vicious cycle – bandits use this newfound wealth to finance more violence, acquire better weaponry, and expand their territorial influence. This fosters a climate of fear and instability, displacing communities and hindering any prospect of long-term peace.

The economic impact of bandit taxes is equally devastating. Farmers and herders, already struggling with the harsh realities of climate change and volatile market prices, are forced to surrender a significant portion of their hard-earned income. This stifles agricultural production, the lifeblood of many communities. With reduced resources, farmers cannot invest in seeds, fertilisers, or proper storage facilities. This output decline directly impacts food security, pushing communities closer to the brink of hunger. Furthermore, as markets in affected areas experience a decrease in purchasing power due to extortion, local economies are weakened. This creates a stagnant environment where essential goods become scarce, and economic opportunities dwindle, further deepening the cycle of poverty. In essence, bandit taxes create a perfect storm of insecurity and economic hardship. By eroding trust in state institutions and crippling local economies, they exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and hinder any path towards sustainable development.

Eradicating the “bandit tax” demands a comprehensive strategy that tackles the problem from multiple angles. At its core lies a robust security response. This means bolstering military presence in affected regions to disrupt bandit operations and deter future extortion attempts. However, security goes beyond firepower. Enhanced intelligence gathering is crucial to anticipate bandit movements and proactively thwart attacks. Additionally, building resilience within communities is equally important. Supporting self-defence initiatives, with a strong emphasis on legal compliance, equips residents to resist banditry. Furthermore, fostering social safety nets, such as food security programs and economic development initiatives, can address underlying vulnerabilities that make communities susceptible to bandit recruitment.

Another crucial step is to address the root causes that fuel banditry. Many bandits are unemployed youth enticed by the promise of quick money. Investing in education and job creation programs provides alternative pathways, offering a future beyond banditry. Poverty reduction efforts further diminish the allure of this violent livelihood. Furthermore, disrupting the flow of illegal weapons is essential. Porous borders and weak law enforcement enable bandits to acquire sophisticated weaponry, escalating the violence. Strengthening border security and bolstering law enforcement capacity are vital to cut off their supply chains and prevent further armament. The bandit tax is a symptom of a wider malaise. Addressing this menace requires a concerted effort that combines immediate security interventions with long-term developmental strategies. As Nigeria grapples with this crisis, the stakes are high: the very fabric of its rural economy and the legitimacy of its state are on the line. The Nigerian government must act decisively and restore order and hope to its beleaguered citizens.

“Torturers must never be allowed to get away with their crimes, and systems that enable torture should be dismantled or transformed,” says UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The United Nations International Day in Support of Victims of Torture observed annually on June 26, underscores the global commitment to the eradication of torture and the support of its victims. This day serves as a reminder of the pervasive and insidious nature of torture, a violation of human rights that persists in various forms around the world despite international laws prohibiting it. Torture remains a significant issue globally, employed as a tool of repression, interrogation, and punishment by state and non-state actors. The United Nations Convention Against Torture, adopted in 1984, unequivocally prohibits the use of torture under any circumstances. Despite this, numerous reports from human rights organisations highlight the continued prevalence of torture in many countries.

In recent years, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have documented extensive use of torture in conflict zones, authoritarian regimes, and during crackdowns on dissent. These reports reveal that victims of torture often face long-term psychological and physical trauma, requiring comprehensive rehabilitation and support services that are frequently lacking. Nigeria provides a stark example of the challenges and complexities involved in combating torture. Despite being a signatory to the Convention Against Torture and enacting the Anti-Torture Act in 2017, Nigeria has struggled with widespread allegations of torture and abuse by its security forces. The Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) has been particularly notorious for its involvement in human rights violations. Amnesty International documented at least 82 cases of torture and extrajudicial execution by SARS officers between January 2017 and May 2020. These victims were often young men from low-income backgrounds, subjected to severe beatings, mock executions, and other forms of brutal treatment to extract confessions or as punishment. The EndSARS movement, which gained international attention in 2020, brought these abuses to the forefront, resulting in widespread protests across Nigeria. The government’s response included promises of police reforms and the disbandment of SARS, but activists argue that significant changes on the ground have been slow and inadequate.

The Nigerian military has also been implicated in torture and abuse, particularly in the context of the Boko Haram insurgency. Human Rights Watch reported that women and young girls who fled from Boko Haram were subjected to torture and ill-treatment in military detention facilities. Many detainees faced inhumane conditions, leading some to prefer returning to Boko Haram over enduring military detention. In a recent incident, the Nigerian army arrested two soldiers after a viral video showed them torturing a civilian. The move, part of a broader effort to improve discipline and professionalism under new military leadership, indicates a possible shift towards greater accountability. However, sustained and systemic reforms are needed.

The situation in Nigeria highlights several key lessons and recommendations for the international community and the Nigerian government. While Nigeria has laws against torture, their implementation remains weak. Strengthening legal frameworks and ensuring that they are effectively enforced is crucial. Establishing independent bodies to oversee and investigate allegations of torture is essential. This includes holding perpetrators accountable through fair trials and appropriate sanctions. Beyond legal reforms, there is also a need to raise awareness about the rights of individuals and the prohibition of torture. This can empower victims and the public to demand justice and reforms. Furthermore, the government should invest in comprehensive rehabilitation programs for victims, encompassing physical and psychological needs. Supporting survivor-led organisations can further empower victims to seek justice and rebuild their lives. International cooperation is also crucial. The international community can play a critical role by providing technical assistance, monitoring progress, and sharing best practices to strengthen Nigeria’s reform efforts. Moreover, holding violators accountable on the international stage can further deter torture.

The International Day in Support of Victims of Torture serves as a crucial reminder of the ongoing battle against torture worldwide. In Nigeria, despite some progress, significant challenges remain. By learning from international best practices and committing to genuine reforms, Nigeria can move closer to eradicating torture and ensuring justice and support for its victims. This day calls on all nations to reaffirm their commitment to human dignity and the absolute prohibition of torture.

In a landmark decision, Sierra Leone recently enacted the Prohibition of Child Marriage Bill 2024, criminalising child marriage. The law passed on June 20, 2024, prescribes jail terms of up to 15 years for offenders or a stiff fine of up to $2,000, signifying a crucial step towards protecting child rights. This move, hailed by human rights activists and international organisations, marks a pivotal moment in the country’s battle against a deeply ingrained practice. However, the implications of this legislative change extend far beyond Sierra Leone’s borders, echoing across the African continent, where child marriage remains a pervasive challenge. Child marriage, defined as a formal marriage or informal union before the age of 18, is alarmingly prevalent in Sierra Leone. According to UNICEF, nearly 30 per cent of girls in the country are married before they turn 18, nine per cent of the girls are married before they turn 15, while seven per cent of boys are married before they turn 18. This statistic mirrors a broader pattern in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly West and Central Africa, where UNICEF estimates that nearly 60 million girls are child brides. A combination of poverty, institutional gaps, gender inequality, and cultural traditions often drives the practice.

The criminalisation of child marriage and enforcement of penalties in Sierra Leone could catalyse similar proactive changes across Africa. While countries like Malawi and Tanzania have also taken steps to outlaw child marriage, enforcement remains inconsistent, and social change is slow. Sierra Leone’s proactive approach could inspire other nations to adopt and rigorously enforce similar laws. Moreover, this legislative change highlights the importance of international cooperation and support. Organisations such as the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and Save the Children International have been instrumental in advocating for the rights of children and supporting the Sierra Leonean government in their efforts to end child marriage. The success of Sierra Leone’s law could bolster these efforts, providing a model for other countries grappling with the same issue.

The fight against child marriage in Sierra Leone and ensuring the law is implemented effectively requires a multi-pronged approach. Education is paramount. Empowering young people through schooling equips them with skills for economic independence and delays marriage and childbearing. Additionally, tackling poverty through microfinance initiatives and social safety nets can alleviate the pressures that drive families to marry off their children young. Additionally, community engagement is crucial. Religious leaders and local chiefs can be powerful advocates for change, challenging traditional beliefs and promoting the benefits of girls’ education. Empowering women within communities can disrupt the cycle as mothers become more vocal agents for their daughters’ futures. In tandem with non-governmental organisations and community service organisations, the government must work to ensure that this law is more than just symbolic. Efforts should be deployed to increase public awareness, provide education on the rights of children, and offer support services for those at risk of child marriage. Implementing and enforcing this law will be crucial in determining its effectiveness.

Ending child marriage has profound implications for the economic and social development of African nations. Empowering girls to stay in school and pursue careers contributes to economic growth and poverty reduction. Educated women are more likely to invest in their families and communities, creating a positive ripple effect. Furthermore, addressing child marriage is essential for advancing gender equality. By protecting girls’ rights and ensuring they have the opportunity to reach their full potential, countries can make significant strides toward closing the gender gap and fostering inclusive development.

Sierra Leone’s decision to criminalise child marriage is a landmark victory in the fight for children’s rights and gender equality. While challenges remain regarding enforcement and societal acceptance, this legislative change is a crucial step forward. The broader implications for Africa are significant, offering hope that other nations will follow suit and prioritise the protection and empowerment of their young citizens. As Sierra Leone’s experience shows, when combined with comprehensive support and awareness efforts, legal reform can pave the way for a brighter future for millions of children across the continent.