Lessons from Ethiopia

Africa’s oldest independent and second most populous country, Ethiopia, witnessed a coup attempt on Saturday evening that left the regional governor of Amhara, Ambachew Mekonnen, and his senior adviser dead. The coup was reportedly orchestrated by Amhara’s security chief, Asaminew Tsige. In apparent coordinated attacks, the nation’s Chief of Army Staff was also killed by his bodyguard.

Ethiopia, arguably, a former police state has witnessed massive political and democratic reforms since the election of its current prime minister, Abiy Ahmed. Mr Abiy went on to end political repression by removing bans on political parties and prosecuting officials accused of human rights abuses. In recent years, Ethiopia has emerged as one of the fastest developing economies in Africa and with a budding aviation sector. The country has also witnessed significant rise in inclusionary politics.

Due to policing nature of previous regimes in Ethiopia, powers given to  federating units were not fully exercised by those regions. Abiy’s emergence as prime minister and his political reforms opened up democratic atmosphere for the regions to thrive independently. However, regional autonomy appear to have triggered new and old challenges. Some groups are making demands to establish their own states, and ethno-nationalists from different groups are not heeding to the prime minister’s call for pan-Ethiopian unity. All these continue to fan the embers of tension and violence in the country.

Paradoxically, these Ethiopian trajectories raises important questions: Why polarisation and conflict tends to grow with democracy? Ethiopia’s new sojourn to democracy seem to have led to expression of freedom and interests that was hitherto repressed before the emergence of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Democracy as a political concept gives room for expression of self and pursuit of interests that could take violent dimensions if met with opposition. Could this explain the emergence of various forms of intra-state conflicts among  developing democracies?

What lessons can be learnt from Ethiopia? Nigeria like Ethiopia has a multiplicity of diverse ethnic groups,  with some groups clamouring for more autonomy. Over the years, most of the advocacy in Nigerian politics have been on restructuring the political system to give other levels of government greater statutory freedom to thrive at their own space. Likewise, recent debates on how to mitigate insecurities across the nation has birthed the call for the establishment of state police.

As important as these clamours are, government and relevant stakeholders have to think through the processes so that these reforms agitated for do not create further problems as witnessed in Ethiopia. Reforming Nigeria’s political, security systems, for instance, requires a carefully mapped out strategy that aligns with the ethno-religious multiplicity of the nation and based on true practice of federalism. Otherwise, contrary actions will further compound the nation’s many woes.