COUPS TOO MANY?

Military coups characterised the immediate years following the independence of African countries. These coups are a stark difference from the expectations of nationalists and the African people. While the 1960s and 1970s had coup attempts every 55 days in the 1960s and 1970s, the post-cold War democratic programme promised to rid the continent of authoritarianism and incessant military takeovers to be replaced by democratically elected governments. The resurgence of these coups comes at a time when African countries, particularly within the West African region, grapple to contain violent sects operating within their borders and national frontiers.

In the past four years, West Africa has recorded six coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Guinea Bissau and Niger. The most recent occurred on 26^th July 2023 in Niger Republic. The military junta in Niger Republic premised the takeover on poor economic and social governance, similar to other military takeovers in the troubled region.

On why coups are on the rise in West Africa, factors such as poverty and poor economic performance account for incessant coups, which is a harbinger for more coups. Deteriorating security has also been a factor for coups, as seen in the coup in Burkina Faso on 30^th September 2023. However, the lenient approach by regional and international bodies has made it possible for the coup leaders to make few concessions while planning longer periods of rule. Governance across ECOWAS states remains weak, which is a catalyst for poverty and insecurity to thrive. This governance issue can also be seen in the sit-tight syndrome of African leaders.

While Nigeria had a reputation for coups in the immediate years following independence, it has had uninterrupted democratic rule since 1999. Taking up the mantle of ensuring democratic processes in the West African region Nigeria has spearheaded efforts at making military coups unacceptable. However, recent security and developmental challenges within Nigeria question Nigeria’s weakening hegemony in West Africa. The efforts by Nigeria to contain Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) spilling into other countries like Niger and Chad, as well as the general ungovernability of the peripheral regions, has led to the view of Nigeria as an exporter of instability in the West African region. The coup in the Niger Republic puts Nigeria’s influence to the test again. So far, condemnation from President Bola Tinubu and the international community have followed, although condemnations remain inefficient in quelling such incidents. To an extent, regional issues such as this coup test the degree of Nigeria’s influence in maintaining stability in the West African region.

In addressing the incessant coups in an already tense region, West African countries must address governance weaknesses manifesting as socioeconomic challenges and rising insecurity with the aid of regional and international partners. This can be done by building the appropriate institutional structures and environments to strengthen governance and forge deeper relationships between citizens and their governments, making unconstitutional government transitions more difficult.

Furthermore, regional and international partners should combine condemnation with tactical kinetic and non-kinetic approaches to ensure the sustainability of democracy in West African countries where coups occur. Moreover, Nigeria must intensify its efforts at curbing its internal security challenges to be better positioned to enforce regional stability as a hegemon. Adherence to the democratic process through free and fair elections and commitment to tenures would eliminate certain dissatisfactions that often prompt coups. Also, there is a need to improve transitions to democracy after coups by convening inclusive national discussions that can create local pro-democracy changes, define the military’s role, and assist civilian administrations in better meeting their people’s demands.