Road to Stability

Over the years, the Sahel region has witnessed a series of unending violent conflicts. While confronting the myriad of conflict issues, particularly the surge and activities of non-state armed groups, the wave of military coups in the West African region has swept and engulfed Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and most recently, Niger. The majority of the military coups have been premised on factors such as poverty, deteriorating security and poor economic performance, and it has created new stability challenges for the region.

The fight against Jihadist insurgents in the West African region has seen the involvement of enhanced military cooperation between states like the US and Niger. However, the most Niger coup has culminated in the suspension of vital military programmes which have existed and proven pivotal in the fight against non-state armed groups. With this setback in the anti-jihadist efforts, the West African region has been confronted with tackling jihadists, reigning in the putschists and restoring democracy. While confronting all issues in the shortest possible time remains the best option, recent efforts and dynamics have revealed that the road to stability may be tumultuous. From open condemnations to seemingly failed attempts at diplomacy and subsequent sanctions, the recent coup in Niger indicates that democratisation in the country may be more complex than expected.

Is stability based on what the people want or what the principle of democracy dictates? The situation in Niger differs such that the military junta arguably have the backing of the populace. This is seen with the street rallies in support of the military junta. While the putschists have made no clear indication of the democratisation process, the West African region remains on edge as to adopting the approach to halting the wave of military juntas sweeping across the region. Certain questions reflect the dilemma; do you use all measures to oust the junta who currently enjoy local popular support? Do you adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ attitude with hopes of eventual democratisation? What becomes of the war on jihadists factoring that recurrent accusations of abuse and further destabilisation have marred the offensive-heavy strategy adopted by other juntas in the region?

From the Institute for Security Studies Report (ISS) report, security, governance and development are closely connected and cannot be overlooked in stabilisation efforts in the Sahel region. Thus, political instability makes the situation on the ground much more volatile and unpredictable, factoring Niger as a pivotal state in the fight against extremism in the region. The rapid resolution of the coup in Niger through persistent but tactical diplomatic means is necessary for restoring stability in the country and preventing the backtracking of grounds gained in the fight against Jihadist non-state armed groups. There is also a need to prioritise the fight against jihadist armed groups while diplomatic engagements are underway.

Also, military juntas in West Africa are rapidly becoming more than a regional issue, but one that may involve direct or indirect influence from great powers; as a result, a clear line must be drawn between rapidly resolving peace and democracy in the region as against furthering any foreign ideological agenda that could protract the peace and stabilisation process.