Diplomacy or Disruption

As the ECOWAS region continues to ponder the exit of three member states, Nigeria stands at a crossroads between upholding community principles and protecting its interests, especially with its Northern border country, Niger. Suppose ECOWAS calls on its members to sever relations with these countries as a punitive measure. In that case, it will be a hard call for Nigeria, considering it has enjoyed an age-long relationship with Niger. Therefore, Niger’s departure holds significant economic and social consequences for Nigeria, especially for the informal trade sector and its predominantly female workforce. Consequently, Nigeria must approach this issue diplomatically.

The relationship between Nigeria and Niger is deeply rooted, spanning a 1,600 km colonial border characterised by cultural affinity, a shared language, and familial connections. The economic heartbeat of this relationship pulsates through Informal Cross Border Trade (ICBT), with UN figures reporting trade volumes exceeding US$200 million in 2021. Per a 2013 Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) study, the highest level of exports from Nigeria was to Niger Republic, with an export value of ₦327,659.09 billion (or 75.3 per cent of the total informal exports). The border site located at Kamba was the most active monitoring point regarding the value of informal exports, as it accounted for about 49.9 per cent (₦217,358.27 million) of the total informal exports. However, these figures merely scratch the surface, as a substantial portion of commerce occurs through informal channels, such as the bustling MaiGatari market on the Jigawa-Zinder border.

Trade relations between both countries remain uncertain at the moment. Protocol A/P.1/5/79 relating to the free movement of persons, services and capital, has facilitated the exponential growth of informal trade over the years between Niger and Nigeria. This unrecorded trade, estimated to contribute up to 39 per cent of Niger’s GDP, plays a vital role in the livelihoods of citizens on both sides of the border, particularly women engaged in small-scale trading in border communities. These women traverse porous borders, ferrying goods ranging from foodstuffs to textiles and household items. Niger’s sudden exit from ECOWAS threatens to disrupt these informal trade routes in the event of strict border laws, potentially destabilising supply chains and leading to price hikes for essential goods. Lacking formal financial access, legal representation, and social safety nets, these women face unique challenges. Niger’s ECOWAS withdrawal adds another layer of complexity, compelling women to explore riskier, unofficial routes or abandon trade altogether. The ramifications extend beyond economic challenges, as women in the informal sector may become more vulnerable to exploitation, violence, and harassment.

Formal trade relations may face more risks. Trade between the two countries plays a significant role in the trans-Saharan corridor, connecting Nigeria with nations like Burkina Faso and Mali and providing crucial revenue for Nigeria’s transport sector. However, there are risks associated with critical projects. Nigeria’s plan to construct a 284km railway from Kano to Maradi in Niger, with a target completion date of 2025, might face delays due to the current political climate and high inflation, leading to increased costs. Additionally, Nigeria’s Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline project, spanning 4,100km from Nigeria through Niger to the Algerian coast, is also at risk due to uncertainties surrounding Nigeria-Niger relations following existing ECOWAS sanctions and Niger’s exit.

Already grappling with security issues, women traders now face increased susceptibility to exploitation and violence. Smugglers operating outside legal frameworks may exploit their desperation, while heightened border patrols could lead to harassment and confiscation of goods. In a 2020 meeting with an ECOWAS delegation, former President Buhari opined that “only God can supervise Nigeria’s border with Niger”. The previous sanctions imposed by Nigeria have also exacerbated existing trade challenges, further threatening the livelihoods of women, many of whom have become sole providers due to conflicts and insurgencies.

Niger’s exit from ECOWAS could have significant cultural ramifications for Nigeria, especially in border communities. Shared languages and traditions create deep interconnections, making regional cooperation crucial for cultural exchange and preserving shared heritage. With ECOWAS as a platform for collaboration, its absence might hinder cross-border relations and even informal interactions that keep shared identities alive in these border communities. This disruption could exacerbate tensions or fuel cultural misunderstandings, especially if economic hardship fuels resource competition. Therefore, maintaining open communication and finding alternative avenues for cultural cooperation become vital to fostering continued connections despite the political rift.

The repercussions of Niger’s ECOWAS withdrawal extend beyond its borders, impacting some northern Nigerian communities heavily dependent on informal trade. Disruptions in these trade routes could adversely affect local markets, businesses, and livelihoods, exacerbating economic fragility. The full extent of Niger’s ECOWAS exit on informal trade with Nigeria and its gendered implications remains to be seen. However, several steps can mitigate the harm. Both Niger and Nigeria must engage in constructive dialogue to find solutions that minimise disruptions to cross-border trade. Additionally, supporting women traders through improved access to finance, training, and legal aid can enhance resilience. Furthermore, exploring avenues to formalise informal trade offers potential solutions, providing more protection and security for participants.

Niger’s withdrawal from ECOWAS unfolds as a complex puzzle with far-reaching consequences. While political considerations are paramount, overlooking the economic and social impacts, particularly on women, would be a grave misstep. By prioritising dialogue, empowering women, and seeking creative solutions, the region can navigate this turbulent chapter with a focus on shared prosperity and inclusivity. The risk of violence and exploitation at the border, especially for women, emphasises the urgency of finding viable solutions to safeguard the informal trade sector in the wake of Niger’s exit.