Nigeria’s Terrorism Troubles Persist

An idyllic ceremony in Gwoza, Borno State, Nigeria, descended into horror on June 29. A suicide bomber ripped through a wedding party, initiating a horrific sequence of coordinated blasts that claimed at least 32 lives and further cast a long shadow over Nigeria’s fight for stability. While Boko Haram and its splinter group, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), remain the prime suspects, given their operations in the region, the attack exposes the groups’ enduring threat and the fragility of progress against wider insecurity. The Gwoza bombings were particularly chilling due to their targeting. The first blast was at a wedding, followed by attacks on a hospital treating the injured and a funeral for the victims. The calculated brutality designed to inflict carnage and sow fear aligns with terrorism tactics in Nigeria, fatal risks despite military pressure.

The attack also highlights a concerning trend: the insurgents’ ability to operate in remote areas. Gwoza lies near the Cameroon border, a region with porous security and a known terrorist group hideout. This geographic advantage allows the insurgents to regroup, plan attacks, and exploit lapses in vigilance. The Gowza bombing is not an isolated incident but part of a broader pattern of violence that has plagued Nigeria’s North East region for over a decade. Despite significant military campaigns and international assistance, Boko Haram and ISWAP continue to wield considerable influence. Their ability to launch sophisticated attacks suggests that they remain resilient and capable of adapting to security measures.

The impact of continued terror attacks on Nigeria’s security landscape is undeniable. The bombings erode public trust in the government’s ability to safeguard its citizens. Additionally, targeting a hospital reflects a disregard for the humanitarian space, potentially deterring aid workers from operating in high-risk zones. The Nigerian government has made notable strides in counter-terrorism efforts, such as reclaiming territory once held by insurgents and disrupting their supply lines. However, these successes are often undermined by the insurgents’ ability to exploit local grievances and governance gaps. The porous borders with Chad, Niger, and Cameroon, and even more recently, the Benin border, further complicate efforts to contain the threat, allowing militants to retreat and regroup with relative ease.

Projecting Nigeria’s security future remains a complex task. While the military has made strides against terrorism, the insurgency’s capacity for adaptation and its continued access to safe havens pose a significant challenge. Projections from Nextier’s Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database 2023 and Q1 2024 reports showed a potential increase in ISWAP’s activities in Borno State, as well as potential spillovers from other African countries. These projections are proving true, given various attacks and reports to their effect.  While significant efforts have been made to combat terrorism in Nigeria, its trajectory in 2024 remains uncertain. Several key factors will likely influence the situation such as the security of its multiple borders. According to a report by the Netherlands Institute of International Relations, armed insurgents from the Benin Republic have infiltrated North West Nigeria, showing the capacity to deploy coordinated attacks in the region. Nigeria’s vast land borders, particularly in the North East, pose a challenge. Increased patrols, improved surveillance technology (drones, cameras), and better coordination with local communities can help plug these gaps. Boko Haram and other terrorist groups often operate in remote areas. Infiltrating these networks and gathering actionable intelligence is crucial for proactive counter-terrorism operations. Investing more in human intelligence networks and advanced analytical capabilities can significantly improve outcomes. Terrorism in Nigeria thrives on its ability to operate across porous borders with neighbouring countries like Chad and Cameroon. Enhanced intelligence sharing, joint military operations, and coordinated border security measures can significantly disrupt their activities.

Nigeria’s fight against terrorism cannot be won alone. Supporting regional initiatives, such as the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), and fostering closer collaboration with regional security bodies like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are also crucial in the fight against terrorism in the region. Additionally, poverty and lack of opportunity are also breeding grounds for radicalisation. Targeted economic development programmes and improved access to education and healthcare, especially in the North East, can create a more resilient population. Terrorist groups often exploit feelings of grievance and social injustice. Promoting interfaith dialogue, amplifying positive narratives around peaceful coexistence, and fostering a sense of national identity can counter their propaganda.

The Gwoza attack serves as a stark reminder of the immense human cost of Nigeria’s security challenges.  Silencing these bombs requires a sustained approach that tackles the root causes of insurgency alongside robust military action.  This fight demands national unity and international cooperation.  Nigeria can forge a more secure future for its people by addressing social and economic grievances while bolstering security measures. Only through this comprehensive effort can hope blossom from the ashes of violence.