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Transition of Terror

by nextierspd

Nigeria\’s most popular criminal network, notoriously referred to as bandits, has transcended from raiding rural communities in recent months. The latest incidents are the massive ransom kidnap of school children and a brazen attack on a \”formidable\” security formation. On Tuesday, 24th August, the Nigerian Defense Academy (NDA), Kaduna state, was attacked by suspected bandits. The new cases of banditry have indicated the transition of terror from targeting vulnerable communities to fortified security units, typical of terrorist organisations in the northeast and the broader Lake Chad Basin. The raids in schools suggest opposition to western education, or it is completely a business model for accessing funds. In any case, Nigeria is facing a scarcely managed terror.

Recent bandits\’ upheaval has defied uncertain amnesty deals and reinforced the lingering threats in the affected regions. In 2020, different peace deals were extended to bandits by state governments in the northwest to secure peace.  However, the incident reports and data from the Nextier SPD Violent Conflict Database have shown a steady and menacing rise of armed banditry. From January 2021 to 9th August 2021, about 180 incidents with 944 casualties were recorded in the bandits\’ rampaged northwest and northcentral zones, according to the Nextier SPD Violent Conflict Database. Within the same timeline, 1,470 people were kidnapped, mainly for ransom.

The Tuesday attack on a supposedly fortified military outfit speaks volumes about the vulnerability of many communities in the northwest and northcentral zones. Furthermore, it beckons on government to revisit its treatment of bandits with apparent kids\’ gloves. In line with Brookings Institute, government is \”simplifying the dynamics\”. The audacious attack restates bandits\’ growing audacity, resilience and apparent access to weaponry. Reported linkages with jihadist terrorists and revenue from mass abduction may account for it. In the last nine months, bandits have demanded about 1 billion naira. In July 2021, it was claimed that bandits from Zamfara states were travelling to Borno state for \”terrorist training\”. The U.S. also alerted Nigeria in August 2020 that Al-Qaeda terrorists have started penetrating the northwest zone in its expansion moves. Boko Haram had also claimed responsibility for the abduction of Kankara schoolboys in Katsina, a state in northwest Nigeria. These incidents present strong conclusions on the transition of bandits to much more audacious and state-opposed sets of criminal networks.

Insecurity in the northwest and northcentral zones requires proper classification. In understanding the scope and dynamics of conflict actors in the troubled zone, government can make more informed and sustainable interventions to secure peace and stability. The areas are prone to farmer-herder clashes, inter-communal wars, ethnoreligious cleansings, reprisal attacks, and armed banditry. Therefore, there is a need to apply tailored combat action and non-combat intervention to remedy the security and social issues in the zone. The assault at the NDA has shown that bandits have moved from the traditional targeted missions for material gains to violent opposition against state institutions. Therefore, they should be treated with greater resistance as terrorists. This classification will help Nigeria\’s security institutions step up with the current dynamics of banditry related to their new modus operandi and reported links to northeast terrorists.

Nigeria must manage the migration of terror. The seemingly easy movement of non-state armed groups in the northwest, northeast and northcentral zones will complicate tailored security measures. For instance, Nigeria has different military operations against banditry and insurgency. The possible connection between bandits and insurgents may undermine the operations. Also, the transition of bandits, in terms of their new attack focus, should lead to the re-evaluation of the military operations against them. A real-time conceptualisation and analysis of current security dynamics in the hotspots will help map out effective security measures that can manage the propensity of violence and prevent losses to lives and livelihood. Bandits in Nigeria\’s theatres of violence have evolved, so should government lenses and combative efforts.

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