Bi-Monthly Reports

Gunmen attacks, banditry and cult clashes characterised Nigeria’s violent conflict theatre in March and April 2024. These incidents occurred as Nigeria braced through the high cost of living, the realities of the removal of fuel subsidy and the hike in electricity tariff. The murder of seventeen soldiers in the Okuama community in March is one of the most gruesome incidents in the review period. It brought to the forefront the prevailing attacks on security forces.

This edition of the Nigeria Violent Conflict Bi-monthly report captured the country’s security situation between March and April 2024 from the lens of the most prevalent crisis types in the country. Between March and April 2024, gunmen attacks dominated North Central Nigeria, banditry was commonplace in the North West while cult clashes were predominant in the South-South.

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As Nigerians grapple with the high cost of living stemming from the removal of fuel subsidy and unification of foreign exchange rates, the months of January and February, which kicked off the new year, were characterised by occurrences within the Nigerian border and other related continental issues. On the domestic front, protests rocked parts of the nation. On the regional continental front, Nigeria, as the ECOWAS bloc leader, faced the withdrawal of three Sahel nations. This move posed some immediate political and economic implications, but most significantly, it had stark security ramifications concerning the united fight against jihadist insurgencies.

This edition of the Nigeria Violent Conflict Bi-Monthly report captured the country’s security situation between January and February 2024 from the lens of the most prevalent crisis types in the country. Between January and February 2024, gunmen attacks and farmer-herder conflict dominated North Central Nigeria, while banditry was commonplace in the North West.

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The months of November and December, which brought the year 2023 to a close record violent conflicts in all regions in varying degrees with some more prominent than others.

This edition of the Nigeria Violent Conflict Bi-Monthly report captured the country’s security situation between November and December 2023 from the lens of the most prevalent crisis types in the country. Between November and December 2023, banditry was commonplace in North West Nigeria, while gunmen attacks and kidnapping dominated North Central.

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In September and October, the litigation at the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal (PEPT), prompted by opposing political parties against the current administration’s accession, dominated Nigeria’s social and economic scene. The opposition groups claimed that the 2023 presidential election was marred by fraud and electoral breaches. The dispute, however, has been put to rest by the Supreme Court’s judgement, affirming the victory of the incumbent president. In light of this event, it is expected that the administration will concentrate on finding solutions for Nigeria’s intricate security issues. These security challenges have resulted in fundamental setbacks.

This edition of the Nigeria Violent Conflict Bi-Monthly report captured the country’s security situation between September and October 2023 from the lens of the most prevalent crisis types in the country. Between September and October 2023, banditry was commonplace in North West Nigeria, while farmer-herder conflicts and gunmen attacks dominated Northcentral and Southeast.

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Between June and August 2023, emerging domestic and international events shaped Nigeria’s political, social, economic and policy landscape. For example, the new administration is confronted with domestic grievances from the hardship brought about by the fuel subsidy removal and other reforms, which triggered nationwide upset. The accompanying high cost of living pushed people into opportunistic crimes, as seen in the looting in Adamawa and fed into already existent crimes. Politically, the disputed presidential elections stoked tensions from the beginning of the petition by aggrieved parties down to the final verdict.

This edition of the Nigeria Violent Conflict Bi-Monthly report captured the country’s security situation between July and August 2023 from the lens of the most prevalent crisis types in the country. Between July and August 2023, banditry was commonplace in North West Nigeria, while farmer-herder conflicts and gunmen attacks dominated Northcentral and Southeast.

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Between May and June 2023, Nigeria recorded many social, political and economic changes. On May 29 2023, Ahmed Bola Tinubu was sworn in as the 16th president of Nigeria. Upon resumption, the president announced the removal of the petroleum subsidy. Mixed reactions trailed this announcement. While certain arguments claim that Nigeria lacks the resources to maintain the subsidy regime, others contend that the removal will worsen the precarious economic condition of Nigerians. Beyond these policy changes, the new administration inherited a dire security challenge. For instance, banditry is a problem in the North West. The North Central and North East regions are battling terrorism, farmer-herder conflicts and banditry. Communal conflict, Farmer-herder conflict, kidnapping, and cult-related violence are recorded in the South West and South-South. The South East faces violent secessionist struggles, communal clashes and farmer-herder crises. While the administration’s strategy for combating insecurity is still unfolding, a major step to rejigging the security architecture of Nigeria was the president’s appointment of new service chiefs.

This edition of the Nigeria Violent Conflict Bi-Monthly report captured the country’s security situation between May and June 2023 from the lens of the most prevalent crisis types in the country.

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For over two decades, insecurity in Nigeria has grown in scale and sophistication, posing an extraordinary risk to valued assets such as lives, investments, and the state’s territorial integrity. Gunmen attacks, farmer-herder conflicts, banditry, thuggery and kidnapping are among the numerous security travails in Nigeria. These diverse and complex security challenges reflect the country’s social and economic inequalities and governance
shortcomings, contributing to unrest in the country. These security challenges have continued into 2023. In the previous Nigeria Violent Conflict Bi-monthly report, prevalent crisis types include banditry, thuggery and gunmen attacks. Current data from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database shows that the pattern of violence has continued in this manner. Between March and April 2023, banditry was predominant in the Northwest, gunmen attacks in the Northcentral and thuggery in the Southwest and Southeast.

During the review period, the 36 states of Nigeria held their gubernatorial and state assembly elections, with records of isolated incidents of armed conflict and electoral violence. The devasting effects of violent conflict make the challenge a top priority for the incoming national and sub-national governments. Also, the latest outbreak of a civil war in Sudan is an
upsetting event that may negatively impact the Sahel, especially Nigeria. Scholars argue that the war, which has claimed about 400 lives, could have a domino effect across the troubled Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel. Already, many Nigerians are stranded due to the humanitarian burden of the war, with the Nigerian government making urgent efforts to rescue its citizens.

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Nigeria is facing extreme security challenges. Insurgents in the Northeast, armed bandits in the Northwest, secessionists in the Southeast, violent gangs in the Southwest, and militancy in the South-south threaten national stability. The year 2023 has seen a continuation of the insecurity plaguing Nigeria. This wave of insecurity posed a threat to the 2023 general elections in Nigeria. Several election stakeholders predicted a breakdown of law and order with no clear path for peace across the country. For instance, a Nextier report titled “How Violence Could Affect Nigeria’s 2023 Elections” examined the existing conditions and actors that may propel electoral violence across Nigeria. The report suggested an outbreak of violence using context specific information and data on current violent trends. Notably, the electoral outcome proved this prediction as thuggery, threats, killings, destructions, and electoral malpractice were recorded during the review period. This situation culminated in grievances that questioned the legitimacy of the entire electoral process.

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