Monthly Bulletin

Between the 25th October and 24th November 2023, 32 Nigerian states recorded 103 incidents that resulted in 289 casualties (248 fatalities, 41 injured victims) and 100 kidnap victims.

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This review period (25th September to 24th October 2023) recorded 294 casualties (255 fatalities, 39 injured victims) and 204 kidnap victims from 85 violent incidents across 29 Nigerian states.

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The Nextier Violent Conflict Database recorded 82 violent incidents that led to 183 casualties (159 fatalities and 24 injured) between the 25th of August and the 24th of September 2023 across 31 31 Nigerian States. This review reported fewer casualties and kidnap victims than the previous report. Gunmen violence recorded the most incidents (24) and casualties (29). The casualties include 28 fatalities and one injured person.

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Eighty-six violent incidents were recorded between July 25th and August 24th, 2023. These incidents led to 310 casualties (299 deaths and 11 injured) and 197 kidnap victims across 32 Nigerian States.

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This review period (25th June to 24th July 2023) recorded 175 casualties and 60 kidnap victims from 94 violent incidents across 30 Nigerian states. All three indicators (incidents, casualties and kidnap victims) decreased compared to the previous month. Gunmen violence recorded the most incidents (26), while farmer-herder conflict recorded the most casualties (74).

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Ninety-Seven violent incidents were recorded between May 25 and June 24 2023, across 27 Nigerian states. These incidents led to 363 casualties and 79 kidnap victims. Despite the discouraging number of incidents, this review period recorded fewer casualty and kidnap counts when compared to the previous report. Of the 27 affected states, Kaduna and Plateau are the most troubled states accounting for 11 violent incidents each, involving banditry and gunmen violence.

Nigeria’s North Central region recorded 26 violent incidents, the highest of all six regions, resulting in 118 casualties and 36 kidnap victims. Plateau state accounts for 43.22 per cent of the recorded casualties in the region. Unknown gunmen activity is the most common conflict type within this review period, with 39 incidents, 90 casualties and 45 kidnap victims.

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Violent occurrences perpetrated by non-state actors continually threaten Nigeria’s stability. During the review period, banditry was the most overriding security challenge. The government and traditional authorities seem to be replaced by bandits as the de facto leadership in the affected regions. These young males, usually in their 30s, use violence hastily and assert political affiliation with pastoralists. The most dreaded bandit leaders collect taxes, arbitrate local conflicts, and are cheered on by praise singers. When not at odds, they work together in varying coalitions and engage in a never-ending arms race for more lethal weapons. As the May 29^th 2023 inauguration of a new administration draws nearer, scholars argue that the incoming administration will be confronted by internal and regional security challenges threatening the stability of the Nigerian state. In addition to this scenario, post-election tensions have grown as people wait for court judgements while communal clashes persist.

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Nigeria is facing dire security challenges. While some of these issues predate the creation of contemporary Nigeria, many more have surfaced in recent years, aggravating the nation’s conflict profile. Violent killings,  kidnappings, and destruction of livelihoods limit the country’s potential. During the 2023 general elections, the risk of increased insecurity was highlighted by election stakeholders. However, a glimmer of hope emerged with reports that the period marked a decline in violence. Sadly, violence has increased in scale after Nigeria’s presidential and governorship elections.

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