Policy Weekly

Africa is the continent with the highest youth bulge, as over 60 per cent of its 1.4 billion population is under the age of 25 years. Sierra Leone is part of the story of the youth bulge on the continent. 74.5 per cent of its population is made up of young people under the age of 35 years. Also, 65 per cent of the youth population within the employment age do not have access to secure and sustainable jobs. This creates a burden for governance and a significant risk for security as Sierra Leone emerged from two civil wars 22 years ago and restored elective rule during the same period. In its need for reconstruction and development, the country was the first beneficiary of the United Nations Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), which deployed funding to support programmes for capacity building, democracy, good governance, justice, security and youth employment. While there are multiple components of peacebuilding, the fundamentals must include access to basic facilities like water, education, healthcare and opportunities. Despite the commendable efforts at peacebuilding in post-war Sierra Leone, opportunities are still limited. The current situation of the lack of opportunities for youths is concerning. A direct relationship exists between declining livelihood chances and the rising youth population. Logically connected with the lack of opportunities are poverty and hunger. Sierra Leone’s dismal ranking of 116 out of 125 in the 2023 Global Hunger Index means potential security challenges that create a major burden for governance.

In this edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly, we explore the security implications of the youth bulge in Sierra and proffer options on the thrusts of governance for solutions to the challenges.

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Not enough is reported about the impact of violence on women and children in Nigeria. With the evolution of the media landscape, especially with social media and technological advancement, gender-sensitive conflict reporting has largely remained inadequate. News sources, conflict databases and other relevant stakeholders struggle to disaggregate information on violence in Nigeria to show how it specifically affects women and children. Conversations on women’s inclusion have grown sporadically in formal and informal settings, gaining grounds against institutional and cultural impediments. However, the information on how Nigeria’s avalanche of violent conflicts affects women and children is still largely in piecemeal fashion. Where this information exists, it is usually not public. According to the UN Women, the news coverage of armed conflicts is profoundly gendered and largely male-dominated. Therefore, public perception of women and children’s involvement as victims or perpetrators is not known to many.

This edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly examines the inadequate disaggregation of conflict reporting based on gender, the challenges and the way forward.

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The humanitarian crisis in North East Nigeria, particularly Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (BAY) States, deserves urgent attention because it worsens annually due to the complex interaction between protracted attacks by Boko Haram insurgents and the climaterelated shocks which undermine sources of livelihood and resilience of the vulnerable in the North East. The BAY States suffer humanitarian crises characterised by acute food insecurity, internal displacement, poor access to basic health care, widespread malnutrition and other humanitarian needs. Between June and August 2024, an estimated 4.8 million people in the BAY states are projected to be at risk of severe food insecurity. This is the highest number ever witnessed in the past seven years. Worried by the severe and worsening humanitarian crisis in the BAY States, the Nigerian government and the United Nations launched an appeal on Tuesday, May 14, 2024, seeking $306 million for urgently needed humanitarian response in the BAY States. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) decried that if such additional funds are not received, it is estimated that 3.4 million of the 4.3 million at-risk people in need of humanitarian assistance may not be reached by humanitarian partners in the BAY States.

This edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly reflects on the challenges of humanitarian response in the North East and provides strategies for strengthening
humanitarian response in the region, with particular attention paid to the BAY States.

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In part one of this brief on crude oil theft and illegal refining in Nigeria, we discussed the typologies of oil theft (large-scale oil theft and small-scale/artisanal theft). While the large-scale oil robbers sell their proceeds in the international market, their artisanal counterparts refine the crude for sale mainly in the local markets. We also traced the push and sustaining factors of oil theft to failures in the oil sector governance, which include the collapse of four government-owned refineries in Nigeria and suspicious enormous expenditures that have been unsuccessful in reviving them, the opaque role of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) for which it is alleged to be involved in corruption; collusion of senior government officials in oil theft. Further push and sustaining factors include the profit accruing from the underground economy of bunkering and illegal refining, vulnerabilities of pipelines and collusion of technical experts in the oil sector in vandalising the pipelines. The government also remotely enables local oil theft and refining by persistent engagement in fuel importation, which services corruption through false oil subsidy claims. Related to this is the Federal Government’s unwillingness to properly support the development of modular refineries, which would have served local consumption needs and ended fuel importation. Joining the list of prompts and sustainers of artisanal oil theft and refining is the collaboration of security forces (police, army and others) in oil theft. In short, oil theft and illicit refining in Nigeria involve a complex ring of influential stakeholders who are difficult to dislodge.

The groups involved in illegal refining are not deterred by either the risks of explosions, fire outbreaks and deaths that occur in the process, arrests by government forces or losses from the destruction of the illegal refineries. To explain the defiance of petro-business saboteurs, we look at two sets of underpinning factors. The first is the interests and incentives of the different stakeholders in the oil sabotage practices and the character of the regulatory system. The second is the moral motivations of the local actors to engage in artisanal theft and refining of crude oil persistently. The former aspect of the analysis refers to the political economy, while the latter points to the moral economy of the practices. Thus, this week’s edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly focuses on the political and moral economy of local artisanal oil bunkering and refining.

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The scale and persistence of crude oil theft in Nigeria represent a monumental problem. Twelve-year data (2009-2021) from NEITI annual audit reports show that the country lost 643 million barrels of crude oil valued at 48 billion dollars (17.1 trillion Naira), primarily due to theft. This is more than half of the country’s 2021 debt stock of $90.89 billion. While several factors, including poor metering technology at the oil wells or flow stations and other technical flaws, are implicated in the losses, the dominant factor is oil theft. Nigeria has yet to meet its OPEC-approved daily oil production quota, even as Africa’s largest oil producer, due to oil theft. Indeed, the quota has declined from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2010 to the current 1,380 million. Currently, the country cannot meet its drastically reduced quota due to production and supply chain disruptions occasioned by stealing. With daily average losses of 100,000 barrels of oil per day in 2013 to 400,000 barrels per day in 2023, Nigeria tops the chart among the countries with the highest incidence of oil theft globally.

In this edition of Nextier SPD Policy Weekly, we explore the push and sustaining factors for artisanal oil theft and illegal refining to search for broader and more realistic solutions in approaching the problem from its aetiology rather than the symptoms.

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Local government autonomy in Nigeria has been a topic of intense public debate and policy consideration, especially the return to democratic rule in 1999. The discourse revolves around how local government Authority (LGA) can operate independently of state and federal control to deliver services and promote grassroots development effectively. Local government administration in Nigeria has its antecedent in colonial administration and has passed through various political and administrative stages. Before gaining independence, the local administration was mainly in line with the traditional authority structures, but after independence, a distinct and elaborate local government system was implemented. The most distinctive change was the 1976 Local Government Reform, where structural changes aimed at improving efficiency were introduced. Despite these reforms, local governments have struggled to achieve genuine autonomy.

This edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly analyses the debate around local government autonomy, the challenges hindering local government autonomy and opportunities for strengthening local governance.

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The future of peace undeniably lies in the hands of young people. With over 1.2 billion young people worldwide and over 600 million living in fragile and conflict-affected contexts, their role is crucial. As the world grapples with increasingly complex challenges, traditional peacebuilding methods must continually evolve to remain effective. This rapidly changing landscape demands innovative approaches and fresh perspectives. With their unique skills, energy, and diverse backgrounds, young people are significant partners in navigating and shaping this dynamic space. Nigeria boasts a significant and vibrant youthful demographic; about 70% of its population is under 30. This presents an unparalleled opportunity for fostering sustainable peace. Young Nigerians are not just future leaders; they are agents of change who bring fresh ideas, technological savviness, and a deep understanding of contemporary social dynamics. Their active participation in peacebuilding can lead to innovative solutions that address the root causes of conflict and build a more inclusive and resilient society.

Despite the increasing evidence of youth-peacebuilding nexus, young people’s role in peacebuilding has remained relegated to the background, overshadowed by traditional approaches and superficial inclusion that fail to harness youth’s full capacity as catalysts for sustainable peace. There needs to be a paradigm shift. This edition of the Nextier Policy Weekly calls for a fundamental change in how young people are engaged in peacebuilding.

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The Mano River is a sub-region within West Africa that consists of Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. In 1973, the Mano River Union (MRU) was established between Liberia and Sierra Leone mainly to deepen collaboration and mutual assistance in matters of common interest in economic, social, technical, scientific and administrative fields. Guinea and Cote d’Ivoire joined the Union in 1980 and 2008, respectively. Despite the enthusiasm with which the MRU was established, the dreams of the Union as contained in the Mano River Declaration remains stillborn due to the violent conflicts and political instabilities that ravaged the MRU member states and the entire Mano River sub-region. Given the devastating impact of the conflict in the Mano River in the late 1990s and early 2000s and the threats it posed to the stability of the entire West African region, enormous resources were deployed by regional and global bodies to restore order and promote stability in the Mano River region.

This edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly accounts for the stillbirth of the Mano River Union. It also explains why the failure to address the structural enablers of conflicts in the Mano River sub-region may stifle the actualisation of the normative principles of the MRU and other nascent frameworks for cooperation in the sub-region.

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Violent conflict has spread to all corners of Nigeria, including former enclaves of relative safety and peace. The conflicts range from terrorism to agrarian violence. The standard management approach is the reactive conflict resolution method, which waits for a conflict to start before steps are taken to stop it, usually with the deployment of security forces. Unfortunately, this method is overstretching the limited capacity of the state. Thus, there is a need for a mechanism of peacebuilding that weaves diverse communities together, supports cooperative existence, prevents conflicts, re-awakes social cohesion and aids post-conflict recovery. The prevailing approach to conflict management in South East Nigeria has yet to focus on peacebuilding beyond stopping direct conflicts.

Hence, this week’s edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly makes a case for a shift towards the peace commission model, which will give thrust to peacebuilding in addition to conflict resolution.

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Slums emerge and proliferate across various regions globally due to many factors. On the one hand, rural-to-urban migration, economic stagnation, persistent poverty, and reliance on informal economies drive rural dwellers to urban areas in search of green pastures. On the other hand, systemic factors such as high unemployment levels, inadequate urban planning, political dynamics, and social unrest exacerbate rural migration. In turn, rural migrants, often faced with the high costs of housing, turn to slums for shelter. “Slums” or “shanties” exist in urban areas, contrasting the gleaming skyscrapers and big shopping malls across Nigeria’s bustling cities. Millions reside in these informal settlements, characterised by cheaper, low-standard housing, poor sanitation, limited access to essential services, and vulnerability to environmental hazards.

With Nigeria’s rising urbanisation rate, the increasing demand for affordable housing may cause a widening housing gap without a targeted policy intervention. It is, therefore, crucial to shift the perspective and recognise slum dwellers not as nuisances but as partly victims of systemic failures and bad governance.

This edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly explores the causes of slum proliferation in Nigeria, examines the government’s strategies to address the slum crisis, reviews successful approaches, and emphasises the importance of addressing the underlying factors rather than merely treating the symptoms.

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