Policy Weekly

With less than 5,000 MW of electricity generated from twenty-seven grid-connected power plants, consisting of nineteen (19) gas, four (4) hydro, two (2) steam, and two (2) gas/steam-powered plants, Nigeria is apparently an energy-poor country. Nigeria’s energy poverty has implications for its national development. A recent study has demonstrated that a weak power supply decreases the entry of new firms, reduces the productivity of existing firms, and stifles labour demand. Nigeria exemplifies this thesis as its energy poverty continues to refract in its unattractive economic indicators such as unemployment, lack of industrialisation, poverty among the teeming populace, etc.

Although the power sector has been privatised, the Nigerian government is reported to have spent over ₦4.9 trillion in electricity subsidies in the past ten years. But, still in pursuit of Nigeria’s neoliberal strategy of adopting cost-reflective tariffs in the power sector, on Wednesday, April 3, 2024, Nigeria’s electricity regulator – Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), approved an increase in tariffs for customers classified as Band A customers. Apparently, reforms in Nigeria’s power sector have not delivered the promised efficiency, increased investment and accessibility to electricity. Why is this so?

With specific focus on the distribution value chain of Nigeria’s power sector, this edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly adopts the political settlement framework to conduct a political economy analysis of the power sector with a view to signposting why neoliberal reforms in the sector, particularly privatisation, is yet to deliver efficiency, attract investment and improve access to power.

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Nigeria’s conflict theatres are evolving with new actors and incentives. Old wars have lingered, and new ones are creeping up, undermining security frameworks and creating millions of distraught victims. Hundreds of fatalities, kidnap victims, and displaced populations characterise many scenes across the country’s violent conflict hotspots. According to the Nextier Violent Conflict Database, 967 people have died from 261 violent incidents from January to March 2024. About 1,257 incidents were recorded in 2023. The figures for 2022 are not any different. However, the violence points to the scale and frequency of violent deaths in Nigeria.

The Nigerian state responds to a significant proportion of violent threats in the country with combative mechanisms. This has contributed to the unsteady yearly decline in violent incidents and fatalities in the country. Non-combative measures still intervene in the hotspots and provide varied assistance to stabilise communities. However, not enough is heard about incident prevention. While there is data to mark violent incidents in Nigeria, there is likely nothing to show for potential events thwarted by security efforts or other factors, including community-level peacebuilding.

This edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly looks at the challenges to community-level conflict prevention efforts and how they can be better coordinated and out-scaled.

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On March 14, 2024, 17 personnel of the Nigerian Army were ambushed and killed at Okuama in Delta State, Nigeria. The soldiers were in the community for peacekeeping in a dispute between the Okuama community and her neighbouring Okoloba town. Following the killing of 17 soldiers in the community, the military, according to news reports, embarked on a lockdown of the community, reprisal killings and torching of houses. The ugly episode of Okuama is just one of the several incidences of killings of men of the security services in the country. The Nigerian Police, on March 23, 2024, reported the gruesome murder of 6 of its officers and the disappearance of another 6 in an ambush at Ohoro forest in Delta state. Also, earlier on January 24, 2024, suspected Fulani herders abducted three police officers detailed to respond to distress calls in Delta state. The above figures are only recent additions to an evolving trend in which both criminals and even the civil populace see and treat the members of the armed services with unfriendliness.

In this edition of Nextier SPD Policy Weekly, we engage attacks on security services and their connection with gaps in state building and legitimation process.

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Nigeria’s children are grappling with an unfathomable crisis. Grave violations of their rights are on the rise. In addition to attacks on educational institutions, the escalating violence, coupled with the displacement of families fleeing insecurity, has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in violent-prone areas. Internally displaced children are particularly vulnerable to exploitation, abuse, and recruitment by armed groups, further compounding their already dire circumstances. The lack of access to basic services, including education and healthcare, further jeopardises their well-being and future prospects. Beyond physical violence, cultural practices such as Female Genital Mutilation persist, subjecting countless Nigerian girls to irreversible harm and psychological trauma. Similarly, sexual abuse and exploitation remain widespread, with many cases unreported and perpetrators escaping accountability, leaving victims traumatised and devoid of justice. These acts not only violate the fundamental rights of children but also undermine their prospects for a safe, healthy, and prosperous future.

In light of these challenges, this edition of the Nextier Policy Weekly examines existing policies and initiatives to safeguard children’s rights in Nigeria. By identifying gaps and shortcomings in the current framework, evidence-based recommendations can be formulated to strengthen child protection mechanisms and ensure a safer, more conducive environment for Nigerian children to thrive.

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On March 8, 2024, the world commemorated yet another International Women’s Day (IWD), with the official United Nations (UN) theme for the 2024 International Women’s Day being: “Count Her In: Invest in Women. Accelerate Progress”. Officially adopted by the UN in 1975 following a series of protest movements and advocacies, which began in 1908 to pursue emancipation from economic exploitation and political exclusion, the IWD symbolises global recognition of the risks of womanhood and efforts to de-risk womanhood. But what has changed after close to five decades of adopting IWD and its annual commemoration globally? For the woman in Nigeria, being a woman remains scary due to risks of political and economic exclusion, cultural stereotyping, weaponisation of women as instruments of war, and poor recognition of the intersectionality of womanhood in policies and programming, to mention a few.

Against the backdrop of IWD commemoration, this edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly provides sober reflection and stock-taking on the risks of womanhood in Nigeria and suggests strategies for de-risking womanhood through legislation, policies and programmes that enhance women’s political inclusion, economic emancipation and reflect the intersections of women’s age, disability, culture, religion and socio-economic status.

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In Nigeria, the battle against crime and insecurity has become multifaceted, revealing a complex web of challenges gripping the nation. With formal security structures encountering obstacles, communities are increasingly turning to vigilante groups for assistance. These groups range from small organisations of volunteers in rural and urban areas to big institutions established by the state governments. Some have mandates to protect certain parts of the country or ethnic/religious groups. Vigilante groups are stepping into security vacuums across many parts of Nigeria. However, poor training, oversight and supervision, human rights violations and institutional capture by political and elite classes remain major threats to vigilantism in the country. A disturbing trend has emerged: these vigilantes are undergoing a troubling transformation into cult-like gangs, exacerbating existing dangers rather than mitigating them. In recent times, Nigeria has witnessed a concerning pattern whereby vigilante groups, established initially to combat crime and maintain community safety, have morphed into cult-like factions.

This edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly examines the factors propelling this transition, assesses its consequences, and suggests measures to combat this escalating threat.

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Nigeria’s Federal Executive Council recently approved state policing in response to the intractable security decline of the country. The bill for enacting State police into Nigerian law has passed the second reading. It is highly likely to pass the third reading and proceed to be passed as a law of the Federation. The legislation would be a significant win for several advocates of state police in Nigeria, especially state Governors who complain against the hollow title of chief security officer of their states without being in charge of the security apparatus and citizens who consider the federal police disconnected from their needs.

As the two-tier policing is imminent, it is fitting to consider some issue areas that deserve caution and proactive reflection so it does not end as a costly, futile venture that complicates Nigeria’s security dilemma.

In this edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly, we engage these issues as an essential policy contribution in preparation for state policing in Nigeria.

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Nigeria’s 2023 Democracy Index performance reveals a concerning lack of progress. Nigeria ranks 104 out of 167 countries in the Democracy Index 2023, recently released by London-based Economist Intelligence Unit. While Nigeria’s unwavering commitment to democratic principles since the end of military rule in 1999 is commendable, a closer examination of the data reveals a concerning trend in its democratic development. Over the past five years, Nigeria’s position on the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Index has remained remarkably stagnant, ranging from a low of 4.10 in 2020 to a high of 4.23 in 2022 and 2023. Despite minor fluctuations, this lack of significant progress raises crucial questions about the challenges hindering its democratic consolidation.

This edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly delves into the complexities of Nigeria’s democratic landscape, exploring its persistent challenges alongside its existing strengths. Ultimately, addressing these issues is crucial for fostering a more inclusive, just, and prosperous future for all Nigerians.

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Pockets of isolated protests have erupted in some parts of Nigeria as the rise in the cost of living bites harder on ordinary Nigerian citizens who appear to have exhausted all coping mechanisms. The Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress have given the government an ultimatum to implement previous agreements to enable Nigerian workers to cope with the rising cost of living.

The government’s response to the rising cost of living has focused on spasmodic measures such as the directive for the release of grains from Strategic Reserves, clamping down on business agents, including those alleged to be hoarding foods, and adopting arbitrary prices on goods as well as BDC operators. In the face of the apparent failure of these measures to reverse or arrest the rising cost of living, there are fears that the hungry masses may resort to protests, if not violent, uprisings, to express their frustration.

This edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly reflects on the possibilities of widespread protests in Nigeria from the lenses of critical political economy analysis and suggests strategies for averting/containing such protests.

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About 100 million rural dwellers in Nigeria face the risk of violence. Unprecedented spread of violence is reshaping communal living, agro-economic and cultural activities. Piles of disfigured bodies, life-threatening injuries, forced displacements, and attendant humanitarian needs are the scenes of many Nigerian rural communities. Mass burials have joined the list of community events such as marriage ceremonies, religious rituals and cultural festivals. The reasons for this anomaly have a common denominator: rural violence. The spread of violence in communities is uneven and perpetrated by a mix of different actors, motivations and consequences. This trend is an impending nightmare for urban dwellers who, for a long time, have appeared to be buffered by relative stability and structure in city centres.

This edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly examines the spread of rural violence and its consequences for Nigeria.

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