Cost-Effective Peace?

Nigeria is facing increased violent conflict across the board. There is lingering terrorism in the northeast, which is also making in-roads in the increasingly volatile northwest and north-central zones. These regions are also witnessing armed banditry. Data from the Nextier SPD Violent Conflict Database shows that twelve months to September 2021, banditry accounted for 606 cases of 890 violent incidents in Nigeria. In southern Nigeria, secession agitations have increased security tensions in the southeast, southwest and south-south zones. About 74 alleged secession-related violent incidents were recorded in the southeast and south-south regions, resulting in 352 casualties. Equally, there are daunting reoccurrences of kidnapping nationwide, episodes of gang conflict and identity-related wars.

Conflict drivers in Nigeria are deeply rooted in socio-political and socio-economic issues. A Nextier SPD publication, \’Breaking the Stalemate\’, connects terrorism to issues around poverty, unemployment, ungoverned spaces, inadequate and burnt-out security personnel, war business, climate change, etc. For secessionist struggles, push factors are linked to current insecurity and government\’s perceived inability to protect lives and livelihoods. It is also associated with perceptions of marginalisation since the end of the Nigerian Civil War in 1970. Armed banditry is rooted in the various unchecked crimes that have transitioned into banditry, for instance, cattle-rustling.

Nigeria\’s responses to violent conflicts are substantially repressive, comprising security deployments and tough talks against rising insecurity. In addition, the government has initiated various joint security operations, including coordinated air and land strikes. There is also the creation of region-specific military operations as a response to regional security threats. Although reactionary, some policy actions address pertinent issues such as farmer-herder conflict, cultism, and communal conflicts. Some of the responses include peace clubs, National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP), anti-cultism laws and different state-level bills on open grazing. However, these initiatives have not substantially ended the varied conflicts, nor has it prevented new issues.

Limited resources mean limited efforts. With the Covid-19-worsened economic situation, Nigeria will likely struggle to effectively mitigate the current tempo of insecurity in the country. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) states that Nigeria\’s cash-strapped government will continue to struggle in its battle to contain insurgency in the country. Nigeria\’s Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed, has also stated that \”Nigeria\’s widespread security challenges mean the country has technically been at war, resulting in massive expenditure on security equipment and operations and contributing to the fiscal deficit\”. Defence and security account for 22 per cent of the 2021 budget. Provision for the security sector also accounts for 19.8 per cent of non-debt recurrent expenditure and capital spending for the proposed 2022 budget. The cascading insecurity means the Nigerian government must consider alternative pathways other than repression to mitigate the trend of violence.

Some violent conflicts in Nigeria are rooted in grievances and a lack of proactive peacebuilding measures. For example, there is a need to bridge the mistrust between the herdsmen and farmers through the active involvement of representative community groups. Additionally, engendering opportunities for dialogue will create room for grievances to be heard and set the tempo for sustainable peace. Nextier SPD\’s article proposes deploying a conflict expert group to mediate communicative engagement to promote interfacing with government and the secessionist group. This will create the opportunity to channel grievances and discontents with the Nigerian state.

Proactive engagement will help the Nigerian government to mitigate security risks and avoid human and material losses. For example, implementing robust early warning mechanisms will help security agencies timely mitigate conflicts such as identity-driven wars, gang violence and other forms of violence and insecurity. A bottom-up approach to early warning practices should include community members, local government actors, and security actors in the tactical monitoring of activities in communities prone to communal and ethnoreligious crises. It is also imperative to pay more attention to community policing, which will help to bring government presence and security to inaccessible communities in the country.

Social justice and even public goods delivery is a step towards mitigating agitations and grievances. A 2014 survey by NOI-Polls shows that 51 per cent of Nigerians attribute the high prevalence of jungle justice to a \’lack of trust in the law enforcement agencies. For instance, about 68 per cent of the 74,000 inmates in Nigerian jails in 2019 were still awaiting trial (Oduah, 2019). There is a need to revamp the criminal justice system in Nigeria as it influences public trust that is crucial in maintaining peace and stability. People are more inclined to work with the government, especially the security agencies, in maintaining peace if they believe there is social justice and even public goods delivery across the board. The current tempo of insecurity and uncertain economic situation in Nigeria makes a case for alternative and proactive measures against cascading violent conflicts.