Dancing on a Precipice

“Nigerians have mastered the art of dancing on the precipice without falling over.” “Many of the elites are still convinced that Nigeria is too big to fail”. The preceding quotes were culled from a Nextier SPD publication that emanated from a security policy dialogue which aimed to solve the farmers-herders conflict in late 2018. Almost two years after the publication and several years of farmers-herders conflicts, there is no clear end in sight of periods of preventable carnage that has claimed thousands of lives and left investments into piles of ruin. Therefore, the question should be, has the Nigerian state shown enough commitment to end the conflict or are we dancing on a precipice?  

The periodic clashes between farmers and herders which has led to avoidable deaths say so much about the level of political will to put an end to the crisis. To a very large extent, it even depicts the Nigerian state as weak and fragile. From 1999 to 2016, about 5,200 deaths have been recorded from 325 clashes between farmers and pastoralists in 24 states of the country. A 2019 report by Foreign Affairs puts the death toll at 10,000 within two years. Since 1999, there have not been a policy action robust enough to put the crisis to an everlasting stop. This reiterates the question raised earlier, is the Nigerian state doing enough to end the crisis? Recently, despite the introduction of the National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP) as a solution to the crisis, the farmers-herders conflicts are still very much the new normal in the discussion of Nigeria’s security challenges. There are two or more reasons for this. First, the apparent lack of adoption of NLTP by state governments across the country could be responsible for the slow implementation. At the time of introduction, the NLTP was met with stiff reservations by some state governments following the widespread disapproval of the Ruga initiative that preceded it. These scenarios have most likely affected the success of the NLTP. But should government efforts end there? Obviously not.

Second, the seeming lack of wider consultation of relevant stakeholders, specifically the rural pastoralists groups, rural farmers associations, traditional and religious institutions are key factors to the unending crisis. Considering that land is the bone of contention between the two economic groups, and land use in Nigeria carries some ethnoreligious significance. The elongation of the crises and failure of recommendations made to quench it may be due to the tribal and religious lenses in which it has been evaluated. It is therefore important that any policy framework adequately captures these sentimental concerns as the key to ensuring durable peace. According to Nextier SPD, depoliticising the farmers-herders crisis is also part of finding solutions. This is so because politicisation deepens the conflict and further exacerbates the distrust between the groups; with the pastoralists predominantly Fulani Muslims of Northern extraction, the farmers are predominantly Christians from the middle belt and the South. Furthermore, relying more on recognised trade associations may have caused more mistrust, as they do not command much respect among rural herders and farmers.

Unfortunately, as the environmental factors and insecurity drive herdsmen further south in search for pastures, the chances of clashes are more likely. Rightly so, as Nigeria’s population keeps increasing, the need for land to be used for other activities other than agriculture increases, farmers are also in a difficult position due to scarcity of land. The available lands become the epicentre of violent economic struggles between two fundamentally challenged groups. Government’s policy action should be able to capture the increasing need for land and the decreasing availability caused by environmental factors, insecurity, industrialisation, amongst others. Therefore, the government should seek a nationwide approval of the NLTP through wider consultation of relevant stakeholders. Recently, pastoralists and farmers in Adamawa state signed a peace pact to end the conflict, such similar moves should be adopted by different states and communities that are prone to clashes and where there is a large population of both pastoralists and farmers. 

Conclusively, while non-governmental institutions, faith-based organisations, traditional institutions, civil society organisations and the general public all have vital roles to play, governments at all levels should lead the quest for solutions. As dangerous as it is, Nigeria cannot continue dancing on the precipice while avoidable deaths become the new normal, it should take action by cultivating the political will required to salvage the farmers-herders crisis.