Emerging Violence Theatre?

Gubernatorial elections are scheduled to hold in Anambra, a state in southeast Nigeria, in November 2021. However, the polls have not been the only major headline from the state and the region in general. When the hustle and bustle associated with markets areas in southeast Nigeria gave way for wanton violence, the assumption was that achieving stability in the region would be a complicated knot. Instead, true to the speculation, the formerly peaceful southeast zone has become a haven for violent secessionist struggles, a theatre of hoodlums and unknown gunmen and a delicate operation environment for state actors.

Indeed, southeast Nigeria has become a centre of complex security crises. First, the indigenous people of Biafra (IPOB) have opposed the Nigerian state\’s authority in pursuit of a Biafran nation. Second, the government\’s response to IPOB\’s unrelenting pro-secessionism has been repressive, leading to violent clashes and reports of police brutality, extra-judicial killings, accusations and counter-accusations. Third, the activities of \”unknown gunmen and hoodlums\” have been thrown into the mix, thereby complicating measures to stabilise and restore sustainable peace in the area. For example, Nigeria\’s security agencies have consistently indicted IPOB for the attacks on security and civilian populations in the zone. The group has also denied these accusations but instead accused security agencies of extra-judicial killings and persecution of its members. Irrespective of these claims, southeast Nigeria, is unsafe and uncertain for electoral activities as criminal organisations capitalise on the insecurity climate to wreak havoc in the region.

IPOB\’s position on elections in Nigeria has been unreliable. In 2018, the group reportedly declared its readiness to boycott the 2019 general elections. By February 2019,  there were reports that the election boycott had been called off by Nnamdi Kanu, IPOB\’s incarcerated leader. Recall that IPOB had given a sit-at-home order to protest the imprisonment of its leader. The group later rescinded that order. Yet, hoodlums have successively attacked people for defying the sit-at-home directive. In September 2021, the IPOB spokesman maintained that the group had \”not officially declared no election in Anambra state\”.

Still, in the first and second quarters of 2021, multiple attacks were recorded in the southeast. Furthermore, tracked data from the Nextier SPD Violent Conflict Database indicates that arson attacks have been significantly recorded on police formations, law courts and INEC buildings. By standard electoral processes, the attacked government institutions are directly concerned with planning elections, ensuring peaceful polls and providing opportunities for electoral petitions. Indeed, many security issues appear to be playing out in the state.

On October 5, 2021, Nigeria\’s Chief of Army Staff, Lt. General Faruk Yahaya, launched a new military operation in the southeast code-named Exercise Golden Dawn. The operation is expected to tackle insurgency, kidnapping, arson attacks and rising violence in the region. Beyond this, the Nigerian government should collaborate with local actors in Anambra state and the entire southeast to re-evaluate the current issues in the region and responses that have been adopted so far. In addition, a robust security evaluation is needed to accurately understand the dynamics playing out in the area. This will help security agencies understand the actual actors and triggers behind wanton violence and apply sustainable measures to ensure safety. The assessment will also help government understand its strengthens and capacity gaps in using security and governance frameworks in delicate environments, such as the southeast and other regions experiencing violent conflict.

Security uncertainties in the southeast, including sit-at-home orders, will likely increase the number of apathetic voters in the November gubernatorial polls. Therefore, there is a need to hold an urgent security summit in the southeast that discusses emerging threats and complex violence. The meeting should bring together formal and informal security actors in the area, civil society organisations, traditional and religious institutions and other relevant stakeholders in seeking the pathway towards sustainable peace in the southeast. The central idea is to aggregate security threats and reach inclusive, people-centred and sustainable approaches to end violence.

The Nigerian government should also seek non-combative methods in engaging agitating groups as repressive operations have not restored durable peace. Nextier SPD\’s article proposes deploying conflict expert groups to mediate communicative engagement and interface with the government and the secessionist group. Although there are no silver bullets for the region\’s woes, strategic and people-centred solutions can help the government achieve public trust and engender peace and stability necessary for the polls and beyond.