ETP: Decarbonizing Nigeria’s Industrial Sector

In 2020, the industrial sector contributed significantly to Nigeria’s emissions totalling 29MtCO2. To drive down these emissions, the Nigerian Energy Transition Plan (ETP) details a comprehensive strategy designed to achieve net-zero emissions in the country’s energy consumption, with the industrial sector as one of the five targeted areas. The ETP details a decarbonization strategy focused on the cement and ammonia production industries.

The plan sets ambitious targets for clinker substitution for cement production, aiming to transition to a composition of 19% calcined clay and 81% clinker by 2030. In addition, the plan envisions an even split of 50% calcined clay and 50% clinker substitution by 2050. Simultaneously, integrating Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is proposed to play a crucial role in reducing emissions. The short-term goal is to implement 2% BECCS and 98% conventional heating by 2030, gradually progressing to an equal distribution of 50% BECCS and 50% conventional heating by 2050.

In the ammonia production sector, the ETP is set for a shift in hydrogen sources. By 2030, the plan aims to adopt 33% blue hydrogen and 67% steam methane reforming to transition to an equal distribution of 50% blue hydrogen and 50% green hydrogen by 2050 to align with global efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and promote sustainable alternatives.

Potential Challenges with the Industry Decarbonization Target

While the Nigerian Energy Transition Plan (ETP) outlines ambitious targets for decarbonizing the industrial sector, several challenges, including financial barriers, may pose obstacles to achieving these goals. The transition to sustainable technologies often requires significant upfront investments. Industries may face financial constraints, hindering their ability to adopt new processes and technologies. With a total target of $1.9 trillion and an annual target of $10 billion, financing this ambitious target may pose some challenges, except some pragmatic steps are taken through foreign direct investments (FDI), Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) PPPs and creating a more enabling business environment to attract investments into the country.

Another potential challenge of the ETP will be Nigeria’s technological readiness. The readiness and availability of technologies for clinker substitution, BECCS, and hydrogen adoption are still in the early stages. Industries may face challenges integrating and adapting these technologies to their existing processes. This goes hand in hand with the challenge of the workforce transition; shifting to new processes and technologies requires a skilled workforce. Addressing potential skill gaps and retraining the existing workforce poses a challenge and may lead to temporary disruptions in productivity. Also, Public perception and acceptance of new technologies may affect their adoption, which can delay the transition.

Other challenges may include Inadequate infrastructure for renewable energy sources and hydrogen distribution, as this can impede the widespread adoption of clean technologies. Therefore, developing the necessary infrastructure may require substantial time and resources. Also, implementing regulations promoting low-carbon practices depends on effective enforcement and industry compliance. Inconsistencies or delays in policy enforcement could hinder progress. In addition, the market volatility may be a challenge because the global market dynamics, especially in sectors like hydrogen production, can be volatile. Dependence on external factors may affect the availability and cost-effectiveness of certain technologies, impacting the transition.

Conclusion

The industrial sector’s decarbonization strategy outlined in the Nigerian ETP presents a comprehensive roadmap to achieve emission reduction targets. By focusing on clinker substitution, BECCS, and hydrogen adoption, Nigeria can significantly contribute to global climate goals while fostering economic growth and job creation. Navigating these challenges will require a concerted effort from the government, industry, and other stakeholders. Flexibility in approaches, proactive problem-solving, and continuous adaptation to changing circumstances will be essential to overcoming these obstacles and realizing the goals set for 2060.