Increasing Lethality of Terrorists and the Future of Terrorism in Nigeria

Nigeria has battled terrorism for the last two decades following the emergence of Boko Haram, founded in the North East in 2002. Despite efforts by the government to annihilate Boko Haram and end terrorism in Nigeria, more deadly terrorist organisations have emerged and remained resilient with devastating impacts. The 2023 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) published by the Institute for Economics & Peace ranked Nigeria as the eight country most impacted by terrorism in 2022. The report showed that: three of the twenty most fatal terrorist attacks in 2022 took place in Nigeria, and three of the top ten deadliest terror groups in the world operate in Nigeria. The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram ranked as the sixth and seventh deadliest terror groups of 2022, respectively, and the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) made the list as the 10th deadliest terror group of 2022. The GTI report made remarkable findings on the dynamics of terrorism in Nigeria. One such dynamic which requires deeper reflection as it concerns terrorism in Nigeria is the increase in the lethality of ISWAP terrorism in Nigeria.

Against this backdrop, this edition of Nextier SPD Policy Weekly explains the increasing lethality of terrorism in Nigeria and reflects on factors that would shape the future of terrorism in Nigeria.

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