IPOB: Shadow Government?

Secessionist struggles in southeast Nigeria have witnessed new trends in recent history. The proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), an Igbo-dominated separatist group, leads the current crusade for a sovereign “Biafran Nation”. IPOB’s modus operandi has grown from periodic sit-at-home orders and protests that often turned fatal to creating a parallel regional security apparatus, the Eastern Security Network (ESN). Moreover, IPOB’s sit-at-home orders have become more frequent, brazen and dangerous. Recently, the group had issued sit-at-home order on Mondays to southeast residents to protest the continued incarceration of its leader, Nnamdi Kanu, who faces terrorism charges. Other sit-at-home orders come as opposing of national affairs such as elections, Democracy and Independence Day celebrations. Reports show that defaulters on sit-at-home days have either been killed or maimed with their properties destroyed altogether.

Is IPOB running a shadow government? Despite government’s repressive stance and subsequent security measures against the group, it continues to push its self-rule agenda. While government have encouraged residents to ignore IPOB\’s orders, significant compliance with the group\’s directives has been recorded in the southeast. Also, the Nigerian Police has continually accused the group for the majority of the region’s violent attacks, especially on security formations, correctional facilities, law courts, and buildings belonging to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Tracked data from the Nextier SPD Violent Conflict Database indicate targeted attacks on Nigeria’s critical governance and regulatory structures. The creation of ESN, stay-at-home orders and the residents\’ compliance asks the question, on whose authority do residents of southeast Nigeria live by?

Why are IPOB orders largely effective? Southeast Nigeria is predominantly populated by the Igbos, many of whom bear pro-Biafran sentiments and the travails of the Nigerian/Biafran Civil war. Beyond IPOB enjoying a potential pool of supporters, security uncertainties in the southeast have escalated in recent months. Many southeast residents are likely to obey IPOB\’s orders due to reports of killing or assault of defaulters. Although the group have distanced itself from these violent incidents and vowed to tackle perpetrators, they still happen on widely observed stay-at-home days. Also, years of ineffectual securitisation does little to support government\’s assurances of safety on designated IPOB sit-at-home days. As a result, the fear of IPOB has become the waning of the government\’s recognised authority.

Where does the Nigerian government come in, and how? Technically, IPOB\’s self-rule crusade is direct opposition to Nigeria\’s continued statehood and unity. Therefore, the repressive stance of the Nigerian government and the declaration of the country\’s \”non-negotiable\” unity is unsurprising. However, the horrendous civil war, years of significant repression of pro-Biafran secession have not deterred separatist groups from continuing the Biafran movement. Indeed, other self-determination struggles have recently been witnessed, such as the Oduduwa Republic (Yoruba Nation), Niger Delta Republic, and the Biafra Customary Government (BCG). Moreover, the southeast region has become relatively volatile and demanding substantial securitisation to stem the tide of violence. This is against the backdrop of COVID-19-worsened economic challenges and other violent vistas seeking significant security deployment. Ideally, the Nigerian government must consider alternative options to solve the region\’s woes.

Security risks must lead to commensurate securitisation. The Nigerian government must secure the region from rising violence. The widespread wave of violence must trigger more commitment from the security agents, who are now targets of \’unknown\’ gunmen attacks. Series of strikes on police commands have presented the police force as vulnerable, and it may lead to an increase in self-defence groups since the custodians of law and order have in themselves become victims of terror. Therefore, security reinforcements are needed in all security formations across the region. This is a good time for the arguably mundane southeast security outfit, Ebube Agu, to live up to its expectation of complementing formal security agencies\’ efforts to ensure peace and stability.

The Nigerian government must revisit its repressive stance. The notion of Nigeria\’s non-negotiable unity leaves limited opportunities for dialogues. The repression of secessionist groups has not deterred the crusades but has increased the hotspots\’ security risks. Nextier SPD\’s article proposes deploying a conflict expert group to mediate communicative engagement to promote interfacing with government and the secessionist group. This will create the opportunity to channel grievances and discontents with the Nigerian state. Also, secession narratives can be countered and unity promoted through equitable distribution of opportunities, youth development and peace education. Maintaining Nigeria\’s unity should not come at the cost of bloodshed and wanton destruction but evidence-based solutions and people-driven approaches.