New Southeast Order

The uncertain security climate in the southeast may be far from over. The crisis in the region escalated last year following the Eastern Security Network (ESN) establishment in December 2021 by the proscribed pro-Biafra separatist group, the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). Across the five southeast states of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo, gunmen activities is an endless experience for many residents. The region is also dotted by pro-Biafran sentiments and sympathisers, a vociferous separatist group, irregular sit-at-home orders, and a repressive federal government. Eleven months to December 2021, about 253 people died in 138 incidents, according to the Nextier SPD Violent Conflict Database. In 2022, the fears of continued terror are renewed.

New orders by IPOB may lead to sustained violent clashes in the southeast. According to a report, IPOB’s plans for the year 2022 include banning the slaughtering of cows and singing the national anthem in schools in the southeast. Cattle rearing is a predominantly northern Nigerian business. Also, singing the national anthem is a recognition and pledge to the existence of the Nigerian state, which IPOB’s pro-Biafran dreams opposes. Undoubtedly, the Nigerian forces will resist any unlawful imposition, especially by a proscribed separatist group, calling for the breakup of Nigeria. A call that relentlessly opposes the federal government’s stance of Nigeria’s indissolubility. A show of force and resistance, losses to lives, livelihoods and socio-economic hardship may be imminent in the southeast region this new year.

Beyond military might and separatists’ doggedness, the compliance of some southeast residents may be unsurprising. In 2021, IPOB dished out sit-at-home orders to recognise IPOB-designated memorable days and protest the continued incarceration of their leader, Nnamdi Kanu, who is facing treason charges. Despite the government’s continued safety reassurances and disregard of IPOB’s orders, the designated stay-at-home days received wide compliance in the southeast. In addition, many defaulters of the orders were victims of violent attacks by hoodlums suspected of enforcing the commands. Based on these happenings, it is likely that the new orders will also receive compliance due to fear of suspected IPOB’s attacks.

The southeast region may continue to be terror-troubled if adequate measures are not implemented. Education and economic activities may be the worst hit of the impending violence from the preceding. Security agencies should ensure the protection of lives and properties in the region. Indicting IPOB is not enough to salvage the zone. Proper investigation, sufficient deployment of early warning mechanisms and security intelligence should be used to prevent attacks and apprehend the culprits behind the wanton terror. Additionally, security agencies should maintain professionalism and promote tailored messaging to address the growing sentiments and propaganda of a state-sanctioned IPOB victimisation. This should be in addition to working with local stakeholders to promote stability, information sharing and collaborative securitisation efforts.

There is a need to initiate non-combative strategies to counteract the growing distrust people may have towards the government. This distrust is evident in the reported raiding of communities in the southeast and large scale arrest of youths. Rather than resort to unlawful raiding and arrest of people, the Nigerian security operatives must demonstrate openness to work with the people in managing the escalating crisis in the zone. Years of repressive declarations and kinetic actions have not stopped self-determinism from brewing. Also, the tensions in the area suggest that relying solely on combat actions will not achieve sustainable peace but widen the growing gap between government and the people.

Collaborative approaches to stabilise the southeast region is the best outcome for all. With limited resources and a struggling economy, Nigeria must respond to the cascading trend of violent conflict. Security agencies are already stretched in their responses to crimes across the country. Multiple informal security providers have been created to complement ineffectual security agencies and fill security gaps. The Nigerian state must respond to these issues to maintain its authority and control. Continued threats to public safety must be addressed with a combination of combative and non-combative strategies.