New Year, Old Tales?

In the turn of 2022, many Nigerians emerge from a troubling 2021 with hopes of possible redemption or continuation of terror. The year 2021 was dotted by cascading violent internal conflicts. Across regions, different and cross-cutting threats led to losses to lives, livelihoods, displacement, and limited movements. Bandits\’ violence was the most significant security threat. About 2,334 people died in 935 events recorded in 2021, according to the Nextier SPD Violent Conflict Database. There were also increased gunmen violence and secessionist conversations in the southeast. The twelve years of insurgency and its attendant consequence on the northeast population continued. The Nigerian government strived to respond to these life-threatening and economy-crumbling issues as they evolved. However, it did not stop the statistics of death nor the socio-economic implications.

The new year, just like other new years, comes with rekindled hope. However, interviews with Nigerians show mixed signs of optimism and a potentially bleak year. Abdullahi from Maiduguri, Borno state bases his pessimism on existing security architecture, policies, and the absence of synergy among the levels of government and communities. In line with this, an anonymous respondent in Kaduna state links government\’s unwillingness to tackle violent conflicts with the continuance terror this year. Ohunene in Okene, Kogi state takes a global perspective to highlight population growth, food insecurity, and shrinking resources as a stumbling block towards security improvement in 2022. While Emeka from Anambra state, doubts if the security situation will improve due to lack of deliberate efforts, Lanre at the Lagos State University (LASU) views the year favourably, considering concerted inter-agency efforts, acquisition of weapons of warfare and increased public awareness of security trends.

The aggregated views above point to at least four key assumptions. First, some Nigerians hold their pessimism due to the Nigerian government\’s perceived lack of sustainable efforts. Second, government\’s assurances of safety are poorly reflected in the real-time security situation. Third, government\’s responses to insecurity may not have been effectively communicated to members of the public. Some Nigerians may not see the workings of government, especially as incidents of violent attacks become a daily routine. Lastly, reported efforts to get clearance on acquired weapons and conversations on the state of insecurity suggest that greater awareness will ultimately lead to government and civilians improved action.

Despite the travails of the previous year and the gloomy views for the new year, the Nigerian government must make the country safe for Nigerians. The emerging security threats must be tackled with new measures. Government must carry out a robust situational analysis of the current dynamics of insecurity in Nigeria to apply measures to achieve sustainable stability. An updated situation report will help understand the realities on the ground, match actions with results and seek improved operations.

A robust survey will help the government sample Nigerians\’ opinions, especially those living in the crisis hotspots. Findings from the survey will position government better to appreciate a public opinion on existing and intended security measures. It will also create room to explore opportunities for security forces and civilian partnerships in managing rising security threats. Indeed, it will serve as a make-shift assessment of government\’s responses to security challenges with a view of examining how they could be upscaled for greater impact, accountability of security personnel and sustained civilian partnership.

Improved security efforts will help manage the proliferation of non-state actors\’ responses. Due to unmanaged violent attacks, multiple self-defence militias, usually created along identity lines, are responding to attacks by armed groups. Certainly, these responses will complicate or undermine formal security agencies\’ operations in the crisis hotspots. Indeed, the trend is endlessly puncturing the supposed monopoly of violence the state should possess. Therefore, security organisations in Nigeria must improve efforts to securitise violent hotspots and ungoverned spaces. Additionally, collaboration with residents and implementation of early warning mechanisms will help monitor trends and prevent wanton human and material losses. The new year is somewhat of a fresh start for the Nigerian government to tackle the tales of terror in the country.