Nigeria’s 2023 Elections: Potential Flashpoints in the South-South Geopolitical Zone

In less than 100 days from today (November 21 2022), Nigeria’s electoral umpire – the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) – will be conducting the Presidential and National Assembly elections. It will be the seventh general election conducted by INEC since the return to civil rule in 1999. One of the low points of successive elections in Nigeria is the level of electoral violence that occur before, during and after the election. The states of the South-South geopolitical region have gotten their fair share of this violence owing to the intense struggle by political parties to control the oil-rich states, which would grant them access to control of a substantial amount of oil wealth used by political elites to sponsor party activities.

Moreover, years of agitation for the control of oil resources in the region and ineffective response mechanisms by the Nigerian state have contributed to the proliferation of cult gangs and militant groups who have become prominent non-state actors in the politics of the South-South geopolitical region. Data from the Nextier SPD Violent Conflict Database show that between January and October 2022, the South-South region has experienced at least 24 cult clashes leading to at least 60 deaths. As the 2023 election draws nearer, this figure may soar during and immediately after the elections.

The three last Nextier SPD Policy weeklies have x-rayed potential flashpoints in the South West, South East and North West. In continuation, this Nextier SPD Policy weekly examines the potential flashpoints in South-South geopolitical region with a particular focus on the saliency of cult groups and militants as non-state actors with considerable impact on the character of electoral violence in the region.

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