Nigeria’s Rising Climate Risks

Nigeria faces many security threats.  However, a new kind of danger is emerging, fuelled by a changing climate. Climate change is a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing tensions and creating new ones, jeopardising Nigeria’s stability. Nigeria sweltered in an unprecedented heat wave in February 2024, with temperatures soaring past 40°C. This extreme weather event, far exceeding usual February highs, is a manifestation of the broader impacts of climate change, driven by increased greenhouse gas emissions.  Climate experts believe human activities accelerate global warming, leading to a thinner ozone layer and more intense sunlight reaching Earth’s surface.

In Nigeria, this is exacerbated by deforestation, urbanisation, and industrial activities that contribute to local heat accumulation. This warming trend is causing more frequent and severe heat waves, posing significant health risks and straining resources in Nigeria. Nigeria’s environment minister, Balarabe Abbas Lawal, attributes this severe environmental crisis to the substantial reduction in tree cover over the years. The country’s tree cover has plummeted to a mere 3.7 per cent, a far cry from the recommended minimum of 25 per cent required to maintain ecological balance. According to the Nigerian Conservation Foundation (NCF), Nigeria has lost 96 per cent of its forests due to deforestation. This significant loss of forested areas has far-reaching consequences, impacting biodiversity, climate regulation, and the livelihoods of many communities.  Healthy forests are vital for clean air, regulating temperatures, preventing soil erosion, and providing habitat for wildlife. With such low tree cover, Nigeria faces an uphill battle to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

One of the most concerning impacts is on vital resources like water and land. Droughts are shrinking Lake Chad, leading to competition between herders and farmers for dwindling resources in Northern Nigeria. This competition has historically been a source of conflict, and climate change is worsening it. In the South, rising sea levels threaten coastal communities, displacing people and straining already stretched resources. Additionally, a US Marine Corps University study found a correlation between the shrinking Lake Chad and the rise of insurgency around the Lake Chad region, including Nigeria. The economic hardship caused by the lake’s depletion has created fertile ground for extremist recruitment.  Displaced people become vulnerable, and competition over resources fuels resentment. This interplay between climate change and conflict creates a complex web of security challenges. On the other hand, extreme weather events like floods are becoming more common due to climate change. These floods damage infrastructure, disrupt livelihoods, and displace populations. This creates economic hardship and weakens the government’s ability to provide basic services and maintain order.

Addressing deforestation and implementing sustainable forestry practices to restore and protect Nigeria’s natural environment is urgent. This involves reforestation and afforestation efforts and adopting policies that promote responsible forest management. Investing in climate-resilient agriculture is equally crucial; this includes developing crops that can withstand extreme weather, improving irrigation techniques, and promoting soil conservation practices. Water management must be enhanced by constructing efficient water storage and distribution systems to ensure a reliable supply during droughts. Building robust infrastructure that can endure the impacts of climate change is essential to safeguard communities and maintain economic stability. Furthermore, establishing early warning systems for extreme weather events is vital, as these systems enable communities to prepare in advance and mitigate potential damage, thereby saving lives and livelihoods. Finally, fostering dialogue and cooperation between communities over resource use is essential to ensure sustainable development and prevent conflicts over scarce resources. This cooperative approach can lead to shared solutions that benefit all stakeholders and contribute to long-term environmental and social stability.

Recognising climate change as a security threat is vital. Nigeria can build resilience and prevent conflict by integrating climate considerations into national security strategies. This requires collaboration between environmental agencies, security forces, and local communities. Nigeria can only navigate the complex challenges a changing climate poses through a unified approach.