Rural Drift

Nigeria’s rural dwellers fleeing violent scenes and increasing vulnerabilities that lurk in ungoverned spaces indicate growing rural push and urban pull. Across many rural communities in Nigeria, violent conflicts limit access to farmlands and other agricultural activities, disrupting market days and livelihood sources, typical of rural settlements. Agreeably, rural poverty is a hurdle for policymakers, coupled with COVID-19-induced economic challenges. Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says about 83 Nigerians live in poverty. The growing threats to lives and shrinking economic activities in a rural location is a substantial push to urban centres, which are traditionally alluring to thousands of young, skilled and unskilled job seekers.

City centres are not any better. Violent conflict levels may likely appear higher in rural locations due to possibilities of ungoverned spaces, porous borders, land and communal wars and unchecked activities of non-state armed groups. However, considering escalating security challenges in Nigeria, urban centres are also becoming increasingly unsafe. Moreover, the high cost of living in urban centres is a typical frying pan to fire scenario for many rural migrants. According to Khanam (2016), rural migrants cause a variety of social and economic crises, such as crime in urban areas.

Transition of crime. It is not elitist to project that the crime wave will increase with the influx of rural migrants. Increased underemployment and unemployment due to urban migration may be the tipping point towards violence and insecurity. The national poverty headcount is higher in rural areas. Poor people in rural areas who migrate to urban locations for unguaranteed socio-economic opportunities may dive further into margins of poverty, where they are predisposed to criminality and resentment against the state. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the National Living Standard Survey (NLSS) for 2019 shows that the national poverty headcount stood at 40.1 per cent. It was 52.1 per cent for rural areas and 18 per cent for urban locations.

Responding to urban pull and rural push means managing escalating insecurity. More investments are needed to upscale Nigeria’s security infrastructure despite escalating security challenges across the board. From the preceding, insecurity and poverty triggers rural-urban migration across many locations in Nigeria. Such trends may complicate security concerns in urban centres, widening socio-economic inequality, increasing ungoverned spaces, and homeless populations. Therefore, the Nigerian government should increase its response to rural violence, establish a presence in ungoverned areas and increase the livelihood support programmes to rural residents, especially those in conflict and climate-impacted communities.

Social inclusion is necessary to manage human migration. Implementing social programmes predicated on inclusion will help ensure social services are available to people regardless of what part of the country they dwell in. Therefore, Nigeria should draw from the initiatives for the right to the city movement across the world. The creation of safe cities includes social inclusion, which implies social integration and cohesion and enables a wide range of stakeholders to make the best of the opportunities a city offers and participate actively in decision making.

Livelihood support programmes in rural locations will disincentivise urban pull. For safety or better socio-economic opportunities, different factors form the basis of rural-urban migration. Government should collaborate with development partners to increase funding opportunities targeted at livelihood support and infrastructural development in rural locations. Also, periodic evaluation of existing programmes should be implemented to ensure that intended livelihood support and infrastructure development projects meet the needs and objectives they set out to achieve. Additionally, assessing endogenous livelihood and resilience mechanisms in communities experiencing shocks is key to mapping out sustainable policy actions. The unbridled rural-urban relocation will be reduced if the essential services, safety and sustainable economic opportunities are provided to rural dwellers for their survival and self-reliance.