Spread of Terror

Many rural communities in Nigeria\’s northwest and northcentral regions face severe and constant attacks by armed bandits. For example, in Katsina State, bandits ambushed Buhari\’s advance convoy on its way to Daura, the President\’s country home. In the same state, a news report holds that the Katsina State Government has shut down about 69 health facilities due to insecurity. Across parts of northwest and northcentral Nigeria, where banditry is strife, several communities are troubled by constant attacks and humanitarian implications.

In the bandits-rampaged northwest Nigeria, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR)\’s report holds that about 71,289 people have been displaced in Sokoto state, leading to border movement of at least 80,900 Nigerian refugees into the Niger Republic between January and March 2022. In 2021, the Nextier Violent Conflict Database recorded 444 banditry incidents leading to 2,376 deaths in Nigeria\’s northwest and northcentral zones. According to the Database, about 2,057 deaths resulting from 357 banditry cases have been recorded in the first half of 2022. Banditry in Nigeria\’s troubled zones is intensifying and spreading across states. The audacity of bandits has also deepened.

Nigeria\’s Federal Capital Territory (FCT) is increasingly susceptible to the wave of violence in neighbouring states. In 2021, 14 cases of violent attacks led to 8 deaths, based on tracked data from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database. In the first six months of 2022, 17 banditry-related incidents leading to 15 deaths have been recorded in FCT Abuja. Specific crisis types from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database include gunmen attacks, kidnappings, and activities of hoodlums. On Tuesday night, 5th July 2022, a correctional facility in Kuje Area Council in the FCT was attacked by suspected terrorists. About 300 inmates, including members of Boko Haram, are reported to have escaped the facility. Tuesday\’s prison attack in Nigeria\’s capital re-echoes the nation\’s worsening insecurity. It also reinforces the argument that the nation\’s capital may not be immune to the spike in violent attacks across the country despite accommodating headquarters of indigenous security organisations.

FCT Abuja should be the oasis of stability in Nigeria, given its seat of power status and the presence of security organisations. However, recent incidents puncture this assumption. Capital cities are usually the last line of defence against terror. Kabul, Afghanistan\’s capital, was the last to fall to the Talibans\’ onslaught. In Ethiopia, rebel groups have joined forces to defeat the Ethiopian government, complicating frantic efforts to save the nation. These examples show that once armed conflict gets to the state\’s capital, the aim is a total takeover of powers and resources from government\’s control.

The Nigerian government must declare a state of emergency on security. Recurrent violent attacks weaken the state\’s legitimacy and ability to protect its citizens. Indeed, the perception of the state as the provider of security is withering. As a result, calls and encouragement for self-help have increased. For example, in Zamfara State, the state government is positioned to allow citizens to bear arms to protect themselves from raging banditry. Beyond this, security provisioning has proliferated between state governments and non-state actors. These responses indicate that current security structures cannot manage Nigeria\’s trajectory of terror attacks. It is also worrisome how multiple and often disjointed security responses by state and non-state actors can worsen the security climate.

The Nigerian government should increase its early warning and early response mechanisms. Recurrent attacks suggest that intelligence gathering may be under-utilised. The securitisation efforts should be able to monitor activities that provide logistical support to terror groups. Furthermore, specific legislation and prosecutions will ensure that informants and enablers face justice. It will serve as a deterrence for future offenders. Nigeria\’s classification of bandits as terrorists should mean removing the \’kids\’ glove\’. Since bandits have transitioned, so should security responses. Also, the proliferation and dynamism of non-state armed groups should mean that combative and non-combative measures are adequately updated to reflect and respond to new violent conflict trends.