The Sahel Spillover

Nigeria’s North West region, long plagued by banditry and kidnapping, faces potentially more dangerous risks. Recent reports from the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think tank, allege that jihadi fighters linked to Al-Qaeda, are operating in the region after crossing the border from neighbouring Benin. The report suggests they have reportedly settled in Kainji Lake National Park, a vast and ungoverned territory. This development raises serious security concerns for Nigeria, with ripple effects throughout West Africa. In 2020, the International Crisis Group warned that North West Nigeria could soon become a corridor for Sahelian extremists. These speculations are fast becoming a chilling reality for Nigeria.

In 2023, a Hudson Institute report revealed that Nigerian extremists had advanced further into North West and Central Nigeria than previously known. This followed incidents of extremists from Burkina Faso entering Nigeria in 2020 and efforts to establish a foothold in Benin toward Nigeria from March to June 2022. Although in its early stages, there are signs of a presence of violent extremists along the Nigeria-Benin border. Data from the Clingendael Institute indicates a peak in the movement of unidentified armed groups along Benin’s border with Nigeria in 2023. Alarmingly, multiple groups appear to be involved, with substantial evidence indicating that some include extremists from both the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin.

The Clingendael report highlights the porous nature of West Africa’s borders, a vulnerability readily exploited by armed groups. In 2013, Abba Moro, Nigeria’s former Minister of Interior, disclosed over 1,499 irregular/illegal identified entry routes into the country, indicating the vulnerabilities of the security theatre in Nigeria. The motives of these Sahelian jihadists in Nigeria remain unclear. However, the implications are stark. Speculations suggest they seek a haven for fundraising and logistical support, potentially aiming to exploit the region’s thriving illegal trade networks. More worryingly, it could foster cooperation between the Sahelian fighters and existing Nigerian militant groups, creating a more potent extremist force. While banditry remains the more immediate violent conflicts threat in the North West, jihadi infiltration presents a new and potentially deadlier long-term challenge. Their presence risks radicalising local grievances, further destabilising the region. The spectre of collaboration between jihadists and bandits could create a formidable insurgent force. The country already grapples with Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the North East. The influx of Sahelian fighters could bolster these existing insurgencies, significantly escalating the violence and complexity of the conflict.

Curtailing this threat must take centre stage. Bolstering border security with Benin is crucial. Increased patrols, improved intelligence gathering, and enhanced cooperation between security forces are vital. Addressing the root causes of banditry and radicalisation is also essential. Investment in education, economic development, and grievance resolution programmes in the North West can help stem the tide of discontent that jihadists exploit. Additionally, Nigeria must strengthen regional cooperation. Sharing intelligence and coordinating military operations with neighbouring countries like Chad and Niger, who have experience combating jihadist insurgencies, can prove invaluable. The Multinational Joint Taskforce (MNJTF) operation between Nigeria, Niger, Benin, Cameroon, and Chad must be strengthened and more resources allocated towards ensuring that the operations continue to run seamlessly. Finally, a focus on the deradicalisation programmes and countering extremist narratives online is crucial to weaken the militants’ ideological grip.

The ramifications of this development extend well beyond Nigeria’s borders, posing a significant threat to the stability of the entire West African region. The spectre of a strengthened jihadi presence in West Africa jeopardises regional security and could potentially destabilise neighbouring countries. This evolving threat comes at a critical time for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional bloc already grappling with complex challenges in its efforts to foster economic cooperation and ensure collective security. Therefore, ECOWAS member states urgently need to enhance their coordination and collaboration in counterterrorism efforts. The effectiveness of their collective response will be pivotal in containing and eventually reversing the tide of extremism. This includes sharing intelligence, conducting joint military operations, and harmonising legal frameworks to prosecute and deter extremist activities. Furthermore, a unified regional strategy will be essential in addressing the root causes of extremism, such as poverty, unemployment, and political marginalisation, which extremists often exploit to gain support. The arrival of Sahelian jihadi fighters in North West Nigeria is a cause for serious concern. However, with a well-coordinated response that addresses both security and development needs, Nigeria can contain this threat and prevent the North West from becoming a new haven for jihadist extremism. A comprehensive approach that combines military, economic, and socio-political measures is required to counter this growing menace effectively. The success of these efforts will not only safeguard Nigeria but will also contribute to the overall peace and stability of West Africa, reinforcing ECOWAS’s role as a cornerstone of regional unity and security.