Troubled Towns

Trouble in southeast Nigeria has continued on an ugly path since the first five months of 2022. The region\’s woes are recurrent, from unknown gunmen to alleged secession-based networks. States in the area have transitioned from relative peace to unending terror tales. The violence manifests as kidnapping, beheading of victims, razing of public and private infrastructure, and brutal attacks on security personnel, people perceived to be politicians or members of the ruling class. Also, socio-economic activities are halted on Mondays and other designated sit-at-home days. The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) is responsible for recent self-rule agitations in the region and has adopted sit-at-home orders as a civil disobedience strategy. Different forms of violent conflicts may also have been birthed in the southeast.

Tracked data from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database in the first five months of 2022 shows that Anambra state is the most violent in the region. Within the review period, 46 incidents leading to 94 deaths were recorded in the state. Imo state follows from a distance with 45 deaths in 41 cases. Enugu and Ebonyi states recorded 19 incidents (35 casualties) and 17 incidents (23 casualties), respectively. Ironically, Abia state, where Nnamdi Kanu, IPOB\’s leader, hails from, is the least violent southeast state in 2022, with 12 incidents resulting in 17 deaths. Due to unaddressed risk factors, the violence statistics in the region may increase.

Anambra state has three out of the region\’s top five worst-hit local government areas based on the Nextier Violent Conflict Database review period. The trio of Awka North, Ihiala and Aguata recorded 50 deaths in 18 reported incidents. Coincidentally, the death spike in Anambra state is within the same window as the new governor\’s assumption of office and current drive to bring peace to the state and region in general. There is room to argue that the spike in \’unknown gunmen\’ and self-rule agitators\’ activities in the state is to thwart such stabilisation efforts. Comparing tracked 2022 data with that of 2021 supports this position. Anambra was the third most violent state in the region throughout 2021, with 85 deaths in 38 incidents. It is also arguable that other unclear factors may be playing out in the area.

Ending the region\’s statistics of death will be a bumpy ride. The waves of pro-secessionist struggle will complicate securitisation efforts. Moreover, anecdotal accounts perceive some security operations as oppressive given the rise of pro-Biafran agitations. Amnesty International Report of repressive campaigns by Nigerian security forces in the regions supports this assertion. Also, accusations and counter-accusations are trademarks of the region\’s security organisations and secession groups. Developing a sustainable and inclusive securitisation strategy may be difficult but not impossible. Importantly, preventing losses to lives and livelihoods has become a key stability concern for the residents, government and development partners.

Unknotting the southeast\’s violence requires evidence and local engagement. Interventions in the region must be based on analysing the tracked information. It will provide insights to intervening actors on violence triggers, modus operandi of armed actors and seasons they occurred. This will also help identify and classify the violent actors. For example, there are arguments that beyond violent secession struggles in the region, other criminal elements, either secession group factions or independent actors, have capitalised on the uncertain security climate. Therefore, a robust analysis of the data from the region will provide the evidence for government and relevant actors to intervene and manage the worsening crisis.

A second approach is to increase stakeholders\’ engagement in the region. With available data, the government will be able to identify and distinguish self-rule agitators from other criminal organisations. This will help to inform combative and non-combative strategies to manage the violence. Also, local engagement should involve members of the police. In a report, the Nigerian police accused residents in Anambra state of withholding information about gunmen in the state. This suggests an imbalance in the securitisation of the state and region. To achieve sustainable peace, the people must buy into government\’s intervention strategies. The southeast\’s tales of terror calls for a holistic response strategy.