Daily Analysis

Guinea, often called Guinea-Conakry, is a land of striking contrasts and untapped potential. However, beneath its picturesque landscapes and mineral wealth lies a nation that has experienced significant political turmoil in recent years, with profound implications for its democracy, security, and development. The military coup of September 2021, the subsequent establishment of an interim government, and the persistent delays in transitioning to civilian rule have created a complex and evolving situation. On September 5, 2021, Guinea experienced a dramatic shift in its political landscape when special forces soldiers, led by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, ousted President Alpha Condé. Condé, who had been in power since 2010, was criticised for altering the constitution to extend his rule. His third term, which began in 2020, was marked by widespread protests and allegations of human rights abuses.

The military justified the coup as necessary to address pervasive corruption, economic mismanagement, and the lack of political freedom under Condé’s administration. Colonel Doumbouya announced the suspension of the constitution, the dissolution of the government, and the establishment of the National Committee of Reconciliation and Development (CNRD) to lead the country during the transition period. Following the coup, CNRD formed an interim government, with Colonel Doumbouya assuming the role of interim president. The interim administration promised to facilitate a return to civilian rule through a transitional process that included drafting a new constitution, implementing judicial and electoral reforms, and organising free and fair elections. However, the timeline for these steps has been repeatedly extended, raising domestic and international concerns about the military’s commitment to restoring democracy. In May 2022, the CNRD banned all protests, further restricting democratic space.

The delay in holding elections in Guinea, compounded by political instability and security concerns, has raised fears of prolonged military influence and increased vulnerability to extremist activities. As of May 2024, elections have yet to be held, and delays and uncertainty have marred the transition period. The interim government has cited various reasons for the postponements, including the need for comprehensive reforms to ensure a stable and democratic future for Guinea. Critics argue that these delays are tactics to entrench military power and suppress opposition. The political instability resulting from the coup and the prolonged transition period has significantly impacted security in Guinea and the surrounding region. The delay in elections creates a power vacuum that extremist groups can exploit. Guinea is already battling low-level jihadist activity close to its borders, and the instability could create fertile ground for further radicalisation. Furthermore, the lack of democratic legitimacy weakens the government’s ability to address corruption and human rights abuses.

The impact of Guinea’s democratic struggles is not confined within its borders. It also has broader implications for neighbouring countries in West Africa, a region already dealing with coups and political unrest in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The contagion effect of military takeovers could undermine regional stability and democratic norms. Additionally, West Africa faces significant threats from terrorist groups, particularly in the Sahel region. Continued political instability in Guinea could provide opportunities for these groups to exploit weakened state structures, potentially leading to increased insurgency activities and cross-border terrorism.

The ongoing political crisis in Guinea has profoundly impacted the nation’s development prospects across several key areas. The economy, which relies heavily on mining, particularly bauxite and iron ore, has suffered due to political instability. The prevailing uncertainty and insecurity deter foreign investment, disrupt mining operations, and impede economic growth. This has created a challenging environment for maintaining and expanding the sector that forms the backbone of Guinea’s economy. Additionally, delays in the democratic transition and governance issues hinder the development of critical infrastructure and the provision of public services. Essential projects in health, education, and transportation may be stalled, negatively affecting the population’s quality of life. The military-led government have been accused of human rights abuses, including crackdowns on dissent, arbitrary detentions, and restrictions on press freedom. These actions undermine good governance and the rule of law, vital for sustainable development. The lack of adherence to these principles further destabilises the country and deters potential progress. Moreover, Guinea’s political situation has strained its relations with international partners. Many countries and organisations have condemned the coup and the delays in returning to civilian rule. This makes it difficult for Guinea to manage its international relations. 

The coup and its aftermath have garnered significant attention from regional and international actors. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) have unequivocally condemned the coup, urging a swift return to civilian rule. In response, ECOWAS imposed sanctions on the coup leaders and Guinea itself, aiming to pressure the interim government to establish and adhere to a clear election timeline. However, these sanctions were recently lifted. The broader international community, including the United Nations, the European Union, and the United States, has also voiced strong concerns regarding the situation. These entities have echoed calls for restoring democratic governance, emphasising the critical importance of human rights and democratic norms as prerequisites for continued international support and cooperation. As a result of the political crisis, Guinea faces a degree of diplomatic isolation, which significantly affects its ability to engage in international forums and bilateral relations effectively. This isolation challenges the country’s development prospects and participation in regional initiatives.

Despite the challenges, there are some signs of hope. The CNRD has engaged in consultations with political actors and civil society groups.  A new transitional constitution was adopted in April 2023, outlining a three-year election timeframe. Sustained demand for a return to democracy by civil society groups in Guinea, with support from international engagement and pressure, remains crucial in pushing Guinea back towards a democratic path. The success of the transition will depend on the CNRD’s willingness to uphold its promises, conduct free and fair elections, and allow for genuine political participation. The international community must remain engaged and provide the necessary support to ensure Guinea does not fall into authoritarian rule. Only a return to a democratically elected government can pave the way for lasting peace, security, and development in Guinea and the wider West African region.

In Nigeria, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) have lamented the minimum wage paid to thousands of workers nationwide. In 2019, The minimum wage was increased to ₦30,000 by former president Muhammadu Buhari. This increment, however, failed to satiate the needs of minimum wage earners because of the country’s economic plight and persistent inflation. Prices of goods and services have doubled, resulting in hardship for the recipients and their dependents. Increments to the minimum wage are never offered on a platter; the circumstances surrounding the increments witnessed in Nigeria’s history always involve civil organisations and trade unions locked in a struggle with the government.

Clamours for minimum wage increments have been frequent since the formal establishment of the National Labour Congress in 1981. One of the landmark moments in Nigeria’s minimum wage history occurred in 1981 when the country implemented its first national minimum wage policy. Since then, there have been periodic revisions and adjustments to the minimum wage, often accompanied by labour strikes, negotiations, and, sometimes, political manoeuvring. In 2018, amidst growing economic challenges and inflationary pressures, the government signed a new minimum wage bill, raising the minimum wage from ₦18,000 to ₦30,000 monthly. However, many argued that this increment was insufficient to meet the rising cost of living, especially in major urban centres like Lagos and Abuja.

The issue of minimum wage remains a pressing concern for Nigerian workers. Despite the 2019 minimum wage increment, the cost of living continues to rise, exacerbated by inflation, currency devaluation, and economic uncertainties. Many workers find it increasingly difficult to make ends meet, leading to renewed calls for a substantial increase in the minimum wage. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated these challenges, with widespread job losses, salary cuts, and disruptions to economic activities. As the country strives to recover from the impact of the pandemic and dreary inflation, there’s a growing consensus among workers, labour unions, and civil society organisations that a new minimum wage is necessary to address the prevailing economic realities.

According to a report released by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2022, 63% of Nigeria’s population is multidimensionally poor. Among this percentage are recipients of the minimum wage. Minimum wage earners have slowly watched basic amenities slip out of reach because of the currency’s failed purchasing power. Nigeria’s inflation has worsened than in 2023, and the prices of goods have increased by 100% in just a year. Opportunities are bleak for millions of Nigerians, and the lack of an adequate minimum wage presents various consequences. Aside from the apparent hardship suffered, workers within the minimum wage earning bracket may resort to criminal activities to make ends meet. The ability of an increased minimum wage to sufficiently sustain Nigerians’ lives is highly debatable because there is no assurance of economic stability, and soon after an increase, it is likely that clamours will arise again.

In Nigeria, the minimum wage issue has long been contentious and deeply intertwined with the country’s socio-economic fabric and labour relations. As the clamour for a new minimum wage echoes across the nation once again, it’s imperative to delve into the historical context of these demands and explore potential solutions to address the concerns of both workers and employers. Handling the clamours for a new minimum wage in Nigeria requires a multi-faceted approach that balances the interests of workers, employers, and the broader economy. Engagements between labour unions, employers, and government representatives like the ongoing conversation between the government, the Nigeria Labour Congress, Trade Union Congress and private stakeholders are crucial to reaching a consensus on a new minimum wage that reflects economic realities while ensuring the sustainability of businesses. Implementing mechanisms that link the minimum wage to key economic indicators such as inflation, GDP growth, and productivity can help ensure that wage adjustments keep pace with economic fluctuations.

Nigeria grapples with a staggering crisis. Over 10 million children remain deprived of education, a fundamental right that shapes their futures. This distressing trend is even more profoundly exhibited in Northern Nigeria. The region has long suffered severe gender disparities in education and child marriage. Nevertheless, the issue has also surfaced in the South East, which has inadequately enforced that girls are not forced to marry against their own will. The incidence of child marriage is an indisputable sign of the inadequacy of policy implementation and strategies to keep children in schools. Even more worrying is the fact over 50% of out-of-school children in Nigeria are girls and are saddled with domestic chores, caregiving jobs, and informal labour to support their families.

In theory, Nigeria has implemented different sets of laws that aim to protect children’s rights. However, their lives remain under-protected. The 1994 Universal Basic Education program makes school attendance compulsory up to 15 years of age, while the Child Rights Act of 2003 and the Violence Against Persons Prohibition Act make unwanted marriages and female genital mutilation criminal offences. Similarly, Nigeria is a party to different regional and global treaties that specifically ban early marriage and have signed them into law. For example, Article 21 of the African Charter is explicit that child marriages and the betrothal of girls and boys shall be prohibited. However, the reality on the ground paints a different picture, as child marriage and other harmful practices continue to plague girls, particularly in communities where custom and religion sanction such practices.  

The gap between the statutory, customary and Islamic laws of Nigeria brings uncertainty to the use of the existing provisions. Hence neighbouring the environment where women and girls’ rights remain vulnerable. More disturbingly, among some of the state laws is early marriage, which is just one of the ways that children are exposed to violence. The real issue lies in the Nigerian constitution, which is ambiguous in securing children’s rights. Although it sets 18 as the age of maturity, it also states that when any female of any age is married, she is considered the age of maturity. In addition, it also states that marriages conducted under customary and Islamic laws no longer fall under the legal jurisdiction of the federal government, and it is solely up to individual states to make the laws. Although 34 states have adopted the Child Rights Act and, it makes unlawful marriage for girls under age 18, some northern states where child marriage is frequent are yet to domesticate the law. Legislators and religious leaders in some of the states where Islamic law is implemented mention Islam not having a cut-off age for betrothal as the justification for early marriage. This undermines the ability of the law to ensure that children are protected from forced marriage.

A massive backlash has trolled a recent event in Niger State. Abudulmalik Sarkindaji, the Speaker of the Niger State House of Assembly, pronounced plans to marry off 100 orphan females who lost their parents to bandits’ attacks in Mariga Local Government Area. Sarkindaji offered to sponsor the bridegrooms by paying for the dowries and purchasing all the necessary materials for the mass wedding scheduled for May 24, 2024, at Bangi, Mariga Local Government Area. Uju Kennedy-Ohanenye, the Minister of Women Affairs, has strongly criticised the idea. The Minister has filed a petition to the Inspector-General of Police and also applied for a court injunction to halt the mass marriage, claiming that such an act contravenes both the Child Rights Act and girls’ future. Kennedy-Ohanenye stressed that the ministry would oversee the girls’ education and vocational training; hence, they could make informed decisions about their lives and marriages.

Facing public backlash, Sarkindaji clarified his intentions. He maintained that he was not compelling the girls to marry but rather aimed to financially assist the weddings of girls who were already of marriageable age and had suitors but whose parents or other relatives lacked the resources to support the wedding. Sarkindaji contended that he had consulted with the girls’ immediate families,  relatives, religious leaders, and other stakeholders, which ultimately resulted in the decision. Nevertheless, his feedback was scarcely enough to appease the fears of possible rights violations.

The controversy of the Niger State Speaker’s initiative reveals the complex balance of indigenous customary beliefs, social norms, and human rights principles. Some may claim that mass marriage is in tune with the local traditions and tries to alleviate the burden of poor members of society. Still, the opponents are firmly against the possibility of violating the girls’ right to education and decisions about their future. At the heart of this argument is the inquiry of whether or not the said projects could uplift these marginalised groups or otherwise perpetuate the existing power structures and gender disparities.

The mission of eradicating child and forced marriage in Nigeria can be achieved through the elimination of the pillars of the socio-economic and cultural factors that perpetuate such practice. Measures that support poverty reduction, equal education for both girls and boys and their economic empowerment play a crucial role in ending the chain of dependence and the vulnerability that may call for child marriage. A community engagement/sensitisation programme should, therefore, be initiated to change the old beliefs or practices that limit girls’ rights.

Community leaders play a critical role in shifting the social structures as they represent the power sources. Besides, they are the primary storytellers. Taking such all-encompassing measures, such as counselling and providing legal assistance and shelter, can prevent girls from being forced into harmful practices and promote their dreams. This also includes proactive strategies that aim at prevention, focusing on women and girls affected by conflict. By prioritising education, empowerment and protecting vulnerable groups, Nigeria can create an environment where every child, regardless of gender, can achieve her full potential and contribute to the development of society.

Jos, the bustling highland capital of Plateau State, Nigeria, narrowly avoided tragedy on May 13, 2024. A young man, strapped with explosives, entered a UBA bank in Dadin Kowa. Residents and bank security apprehended the suspect before any detonation. However, the incident exposed a deeper issue plaguing Nigerian society – the resort to mob justice. Reports initially claimed the suspect, identified as 17-year-old Benjamin Basil, was strapped with a bomb. This sparked panic and outrage, leading to a mob surrounding Basil, intent on taking matters into their hands. The police intervened and secured the scene. While authorities are still investigating the exact nature of the explosives, Plateau State Police Commissioner Emmanuel Adesina clarified that Basil might have been attempting a robbery, threatening to detonate a device to coerce money. Regardless of the intent, the potential danger was real, especially with fatal cases of suicide bombing in Nigeria. This incident highlights the constant threat faced by Nigerians, particularly in regions with a history of violence like Jos. The city has long grappled with sectarian tensions, and extremist groups like Boko Haram have targeted the area in the past. The swift action by residents and security is a testament to their vigilance. Still, the attempted mob justice raises serious concerns.

According to Nextier’s  Battlefields and Ballots: Nigerian in 2023 and Q1 2024, 89 incidents of group violence were recorded in 2023, with 87 casualties. Data from Nextier’s Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database also revealed that Plateau State made it to the top ten states most affected by group violence in 2023 and Q1 2024. This database records group violence as actions surrounding violent mob actions, clashes between groups, and protests turned violent. Mob action is a phenomenon that has been around for a while in Nigeria. Historically, public floggings and shaming have been ingrained in the pre-colonial culture of Nigerian societies as forms of public humiliation for offenders. Despite this, such punishments were traditionally administered under the authority of village chiefs or kings, providing a structured and authoritative context. However, a pervasive lack of trust in the justice system has led to the public assuming the roles of judge, jury, and executioner. This shift has resulted in alleged offenders being deprived of their basic human dignity and their right to be presumed innocent until proven guilty.

Mob justice thrives in a climate of distrust towards formal institutions and a culture of public dispensation of justice. It bypasses due process, risking the punishment of innocent individuals. In this case, a potentially coerced teenager could have faced a brutal end without proper investigation. Furthermore, mob attacks often escalate sectarian tensions in significant ways. When a mob targets a member of a specific community, it inflicts immediate harm and sends a message of hostility and intolerance. In a city like Jos, which has a history of ethnic and religious conflicts, such actions can ignite longstanding grievances. This environment is already tense, with different groups living in a delicate balance of coexistence.

The psychological impact on the community is profound. Victims of mob violence often carry deep psychological scars and the community at large lives in a state of constant fear and anxiety. Moreover, the government’s response to mob attacks can also be crucial in mitigating or exacerbating tensions. A perceived lack of effective action or impartiality can erode trust in public institutions, driving communities to take justice into their own hands and further perpetuating the cycle of violence. Therefore, addressing mob violence requires immediate security measures and long-term strategies for reconciliation, economic development, and rebuilding trust among diverse communities.

Strengthening police forces and fostering public trust in the justice system is crucial. This involves ensuring law enforcement agencies are well-equipped, adequately trained, and held to high accountability standards. Implementing community policing strategies, where officers build relationships with community members, can create a sense of mutual respect and cooperation. Transparency in investigations and swift, fair justice processes will also help to rebuild trust and confidence in the system. Efforts to combat corruption within the police force are essential to ensure that justice is not only done but seen to be done. In tandem, investing in community outreach programmes can promote dialogue and address the root causes of violence. These programmes should be designed to engage with at-risk youth, provide mentorship, and offer positive alternatives to group violence. Initiatives such as after-school programs, job training, and mental health services can mitigate the socioeconomic factors that often lead to violence. Community centres can serve as hubs for these activities, providing safe spaces where individuals can access resources and support.

Furthermore, educational campaigns highlighting the dangers of mob justice can change mindsets. These campaigns should be multifaceted, using various media platforms to reach a broad audience. Educational content can include real-life stories, expert analyses, and dramatisations that illustrate the severe consequences of mob justice for individuals and society. Collaborating with local leaders, influencers, and educators can amplify these messages, fostering a culture of lawfulness and empathy. Additionally, collaborative efforts between government, non-governmental organisations, and the private sector can amplify the impact of these strategies. For example, partnerships can be formed to fund and implement community projects, support victims of violence, and advocate for policy changes that promote safety and justice. Finally, monitoring and evaluation mechanisms should be established to assess these interventions’ effectiveness continuously. Policymakers can refine their approaches and allocate resources more efficiently by analysing data and gathering feedback from community members. This process of assessment and adjustment will ensure that efforts to combat violence are dynamic and responsive to changing circumstances.

Addressing violence and fostering a just society requires a holistic and integrated approach. Strengthening the police force, investing in community outreach, changing public perceptions through education, fostering collaborations, and implementing robust monitoring and evaluation are all essential components of a comprehensive strategy. These concerted efforts can create a safer, more just environment for all. The attempted Jos attack serves as a reminder of the constant security threats Nigerians face. Yet, it also exposes the dangers lurking within – the impulse towards mob justice. By working towards a more robust legal system and promoting peaceful conflict resolution, Nigeria can build a safer future for all its citizens.

More from Nextier: Battlefields and Ballots: Nigeria in 2023 and Q1 2024

The situation with food shortages looms large over Nigeria. Recent reports from local and international agencies raise alarm about the growing food insecurity in the country. This problem is made even worse by issues like security challenges and environmental disasters. According to a report from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the number of Nigerians facing food insecurity jumped from 63.8 million between 2014 and 2016 to 148.7 million between 2020 and 2022. It’s a harsh reality that needs urgent attention and action. According to the United Nations World Food Programme, 24.8 million Nigerians suffered from acute hunger in 2023, affecting 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Predictions revealed that it could worsen in 2024, with estimates suggesting it might reach 26.5 million people. However, the latest information from the International Rescue Committee and its partners is even more worrying, saying about 32 million Nigerians (about 16% of the population) will face acute food insecurity or hunger between June and August. The statistics are higher than the 26 million citizens predicted to suffer from food insecurity by UNICEF. It is a grim forecast, and the federal and state governments must take it seriously and be ready to deal with it.

The increasing insecurity in different parts of Nigeria gravely affects farming, worsening the looming food crisis. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network has pointed out that the conflicts in the North East and North West are significant contributors to food insecurity. From the Northern to the Southern parts of the country, violent conflicts make farming very dangerous. This has led to many farmers being forced off their land and has disrupted the nation’s food supply chain. In the North East, where the Boko Haram insurgency is predominant, and the North West, where banditry is rife, farming communities are suffering the most. Farmers constantly face the threat of being kidnapped, extorted, or even killed, which has forced many to leave their fields and find safety elsewhere.

Environmental disasters have made the food crisis in Nigeria even worse. Heavy rainfall and floods have become a yearly problem, flooding farmlands, destroying crops, and disrupting transportation networks needed to distribute agricultural produce. In recent years, authorities have repeatedly issued warnings to people in flood-prone areas to temporarily leave their homes to escape the damaging impact of flash floods and the release of water from the dam in neighbouring Cameroon. These natural disasters harm agricultural production and disrupt market access, worsening food scarcity.

To avert the imminence of the food crisis in Nigeria, the root causes should be tackled while immediate relief measures are implemented. Federal and state governments must restore peace and security, especially in conflict-affected areas, to enable agricultural activities devoid of the dangers farming communities face. Secondly, rural infrastructural development projects such as transportation networks and food storage facilities are essential for boosting the nation’s agricultural sector and reducing post-harvest losses. These efforts could be catalysed through private-sector partnerships, thus attracting investments in agriculture, small-medium enterprises (SMEs), mining activities, and power generation.

In its way towards food security, Nigeria may learn from examples of successful policies deployed by countries that have addressed food insecurity. The 2022 Global Food Security Index shows Finland, Ireland, Norway and France as top performers. In addition, collaboration with non-governmental organisations and civil society organisations worldwide can provide useful ideas, technical assistance, and additional means to improve the food security situation. By fostering synergies in this area, Nigeria could benefit from a wealth of experiences and best practices to ensure its efforts are based on well-researched strategies and global knowledge. These countries have invested heavily in food production, research, development, and innovation while promoting different local food systems and distribution channels. The federal nature of countries like the United States has allowed individual states to adopt customised approaches by integrating farming systems. Establishing adequate institutional mechanisms to promote collaboration among key stakeholders is essential for effectively implementing food security measures. For instance, the federal government can improve collaborations with state governments by combining resources to develop plans that address each region’s unique situation.

Nigeria is currently on the brink of a food crisis. This requires a comprehensive tactic to tackle security challenges from its roots, invest in rural infrastructure, empower small farmers and employ innovative strategies to ensure sustainable food supplies. There is also a need to adopt agricultural methods or innovative food systems that are less vulnerable and resistant to climate change. As a roadmap on this journey, partnerships must be built among stakeholders with a resolution to surmount the obstacles that hindered improvement in the past. To avoid imminent food insecurity and enable every Nigerian citizen to afford food, Nigeria should tackle insecurity, pick lessons from global practices, build resilience, and put the well-being of its people first.

The recent detention of Tigran Gambaryan, a head of Binance’s Financial Crimes Compliance team in Nigeria, has cast a long shadow over the country’s relationship with cryptocurrency, rule of law, and foreign businesses in general. Mr Gambaryan, a citizen of the United States of America, heading financial crime compliance for the world’s largest crypto exchange, was apprehended in February 2024 alongside his colleague Nadeem Anjarwalla, the Africa regional manager, who reportedly escaped custody. This incident starkly contrasts the recent treatment of TikTok’s CEO in the US, highlighting potential inconsistencies in how different governments treat foreign businesses.

The Nigerian government accused Binance of money laundering and tax evasion, charges the company vehemently denies. This crackdown coincides with a broader unease towards cryptocurrencies in Nigeria. Authorities have accused the company of facilitating “terrorism” financing, though public evidence remains elusive. However, Binance claims that Mr Gambaryan, who is not part of the company management, has previously worked with Nigerian law enforcement agencies, providing information that helped tackle fraud and money laundering activities up to $400,000. Binance’s CEO, Richard Teng, disclosed that Binance leadership initially began discussions with Nigerian officials in January 2024, followed by a subsequent meeting on February 26. During this encounter, Nigerian authorities categorised the issues concerning Binance as matters of national security.

In March, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) initiated legal proceedings against Binance, alleging the company’s involvement in tax evasion. The FIRS identified four instances of non-compliance, including failure to remit value-added tax (VAT) and company income tax (CIT) and neglecting tax return filing obligations. Binance is also accused of enabling tax evasion among its users. The lawsuit further asserts that Binance neglected to register with the FIRS for tax purposes and contravened national tax regulations. The Federal High Court has postponed the proceedings concerning Binance and its executives to May 17, 2024.

 The legal proceedings against Binance prompt significant legal inquiries, particularly regarding the involvement of Binance Nigeria Limited, the registered subsidiary in Nigeria, which is not implicated in the ongoing lawsuit, and the validity or legality of the charges against Binance International. This raises complex jurisdictional and corporate governance issues requiring careful examination and consideration. Additionally, Mr Gambaryan’s detention does not align with the penalties set out in the relevant laws under which he was charged. Section 15(4) of the Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act 2011 (amended) proffers the revocation or withdrawal of licences or fines when a corporate body commits acts of money laundering and has no jail term. This further questions the legality of Mr Gambaryan’s continued detention.

Meanwhile, concerns about TikTok, a Chinese-owned social media platform, focus on potential national security risks in the US. However, the US approach has been far more measured. While security officials have expressed concerns, they have opted for dialogue and legal procedures with TikTok executives, including CEO Shou Zi Chew. Mr Chew, a Singaporean citizen, has faced no travel restrictions or detention. This difference in approach raises questions about Nigeria’s commitment to due process and transparency.

The continued detention of the Binance executive without bail may affect foreign investment in Nigeria’s growing tech sector. Businesses thrive on a predictable legal environment and the perception that dialogue can resolve disputes. Mr Gambaryan’s situation creates uncertainty and could deter other international companies from entering the Nigerian market. The economic consequences of this approach could be significant. Nigeria boasts a young and tech-savvy population, making it a potentially lucrative market for innovative companies. However, Nigeria risks missing out on valuable investments that could create jobs and drive economic growth by appearing hostile to foreign tech businesses.

Upholding principles of due process and transparency is paramount to ensuring that legal procedures are meticulously followed, as in the case of Mr Gambaryan. By adhering to a clear and transparent process, the government reinforces the rule of law and demonstrates a steadfast commitment to fair treatment, bolstering confidence in the justice system. Additionally, the Nigerian government must communicate openly regarding the specific charges levelled against Mr Gambaryan. Publicly disclosing these charges will provide clarity to Binance, the international community, and the Nigerian public and facilitate a more informed discourse surrounding the case. Through transparent communication, misconceptions can be dispelled, and confidence in the judicial process can be fostered.

Furthermore, the government should actively seek resolution through dialogue with Binance. Establishing open communication channels and fostering a collaborative approach to resolving the situation can yield constructive outcomes. Binance has expressed willingness to cooperate with investigations and address any concerns, making dialogue an effective avenue for reaching a mutually beneficial resolution. Considering the broader impact of Mr Gambaryan’s continued detention without bail, it is crucial to recognise the potential ramifications on Nigeria’s reputation as a business-friendly nation. Swiftly resolving the situation in a manner that protects national interests while nurturing a favourable investment climate is essential for safeguarding Nigeria’s standing in the global business community.

Moreover, regulatory clarity is paramount amid the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency market landscape. Collaborating with Binance and other stakeholders to develop comprehensive regulations for cryptocurrency use in Nigeria can provide much-needed guidance and stability. Establishing a clear regulatory framework will facilitate future interactions and promote a conducive environment for innovation and investment in the cryptocurrency sector. The path forward for Nigeria is clear. The government must prioritise open communication and due process when dealing with foreign companies. Releasing Mr Gambaryan while the legal process unfolds would be a positive step. Additionally, engaging in constructive dialogue with Binance, similar to the US approach with TikTok, could help address concerns and pave the way for a more collaborative future.

Nigeria has a golden opportunity to reposition itself as a leader in Africa’s tech revolution. However, this will require a commitment to transparency and the rule of law. The Gambaryan case is a stark reminder that there are better answers than detaining individuals without giving them their day in court. It is time for Nigeria to embrace a more open and welcoming approach that fosters innovation and attracts the investments crucial for its future prosperity.

More From Nextier – Battlefields and Ballots: Nigeria in 2023 and Q1 2024

In 2022, the Ivorian Ministry of Hydraulics, Sanitation and Hygiene launched a demolition operation called “To Save My Life, I Leave The Risk Areas” in areas prone to climate disasters, mainly flooding. This demolition initiative has not been fair to the victims left unsheltered in its aftermath and forced to rebuild their lives over again. While the attempt to ensure there is no loss of lives in the instance of inevitable natural disasters is plausible, the lack of compensatory benefits and inadequate alternative housing options for the victims of the demolition has made the situation more unsavoury. According to the Ivorian government, the demolition campaign is to protect the lives of Ivorians who live in areas that are vulnerable to climate disasters, moving them to safer destinations to prevent loss of lives, hence, the name of the campaign.

Despite the government’s claims that alternative housing options are available for demolition victims, dissatisfaction and despair have perpetuated the media and the walls of Cote d’Ivoire’s capital, Abidjan, where most demolitions occur. The inability to afford this “alternative housing” has left thousands of Ivorians without shelter. The recent demolitions that happened in April 2024 are said to have left thousands of Ivorians with nowhere to sleep and no compensation, leaving them stranded and vulnerable to the dangers that accompany homelessness. Issues of internal displacement among Cote d’Ivoire’s populace are not new. From violent conflicts to demolition campaigns, seeking shelter has been an ongoing issue in the country.

At various times in the history of Abidjan, the government of Cote d’Ivoire has carried out demolition operations in multiple slums in the city. The reasons for these operations range from building international airports to the alleged protection of its citizenry. Abidjan is a fast-developing capital in one of Africa’s “richest” countries. The imperative to demolish slums and enhance the capital’s infrastructure rings past Cote d’Ivoire to numerous other African countries. However, the demolition of these slums creates grimmer realities for their residents. Left with no economic reprieves or prospects, their options are limited to building new slums in other parts of the capital or migrating to the rural parts of the country.

According to the Harmonised Survey on Household Living Conditions in 2018-2019, monetary poverty in Cote d’Ivoire stands at 39.4%. The demolition campaigns do nothing to reduce the poverty rate in the country. Instead, it hinders the ability of low-income persons to climb social and economic ladders, holding them in a never-ending cycle of poverty. Slums emerge for various reasons, but the most prominent is the search for better economic and social conditions. Opportunities required to thrive are few in rural parts of the country, which are usually underdeveloped compared to their capitals.

Victims of the demolition, in efforts to find shelter, might migrate to obscure, less secure parts of the country. Cote d’Ivoire, a member of the Sahel region of Africa, is prone to violent conflicts from non-state actors and insurgent groups. To the North of the country, where the borders meet Mali and Burkina Faso, citizens suffer exposure to violent conflicts and border communities are interrupted by non-state armed groups. These groups have plagued the border regions for a while and are motivated by the presence of junta leaders in neighbouring states. According to a report by the Institute of Security Studies, militants thrive in the border regions of Cote d’Ivoire because there is little state presence in those areas, accompanied by poor economic social prospects and limited healthcare and education.

Rampant demolition campaigns, for whatever reasons, will not stop the proliferation of slums. Governments need to examine the economic and social factors that motivate the unending creation of slums. Fundamental issues need to be addressed, such as access to economic opportunities, education, and healthcare, and an overall improvement in the standard of living of Ivorian citizens. The government should make the accommodation options for demolition victims affordable to cater to low-income earners. Rural development initiatives must also be implemented to make rural areas as habitable as urban zones to limit rural-urban migration within the country. The road to ending the proliferation of slums and shanties in Cote d’Ivoire is far from solved. Fundamental problems must be solved, requiring complex answers that could take time to implement adequately. Nevertheless, demolition victims should be provided for to lessen the effects of losing their homes.  

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On May 6, 2024, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sent ripples through the nation’s financial sector, imposing a 0.5 per cent cybersecurity levy on all electronic transactions. This decision came days after the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, called for the full implementation of Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc.) Act 2024, amended. This move, intending to bolster the country’s cyber defences, has sparked a heated debate, pitting the government’s security concerns against public anxieties over rising costs and potential economic drawbacks. The 2024 amendment to the Cybercrimes Act, as detailed in Section 44 (2)(a), introduces a charge of 0.5 per cent, or one-half of one per cent, on the total value of electronic transactions conducted by the companies listed in the Act’s second schedule. This group encompasses a range of enterprises, including telecommunications firms, mobile network operators, internet service providers, financial institutions like banks, insurance providers, and the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Subsequently, the levy will be remitted to the National Cybersecurity Fund (NCF), administered by the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA).

Proponents of the levy highlight Nigeria’s vulnerability in the digital age. Cybercrime is a growing threat, with phishing scams, malware attacks, and financial fraud plaguing individuals and businesses alike. The CBN argues that the levy will create a dedicated fund to invest in robust cybersecurity infrastructure, enhance cybercrime investigation capabilities, and promote public awareness campaigns. They also contend that this will create a safer digital ecosystem for all Nigerians. However, critics of the levy are numerous and vocal. The most immediate concern is the effect on the electronic transactions. A drop in electronic transactions will mean increased cash transactions, potentially stifling Nigeria’s growth in the digital age. An unnamed CEO from a Fintech firm asserted in an interview, “This is exhausting and annoying. We’re going to wait for more details from the relevant regulators. To be honest, if this policy is enforced, it could have significant consequences for the economy.” Businesses also express apprehension, fearing the levy could stifle electronic transactions, a vital driver of the modern economy.

Transparency and accountability regarding the levy’s usage are further points of contention. Sceptics question whether the collected funds will be efficiently channelled towards actual cybersecurity improvements. The lack of clear communication from the CBN regarding the allocation and oversight of the levy fuels public distrust. Legal challenges are also brewing. Some critics argue that the provision contravenes the overall objectives of the Nigerian Constitution 1999 (as amended), specifically section 14(2)(b), which provides that ‘the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government’. Some also argue that the levy contradicts previous government assurances of not introducing new taxes. Others point to Section 44 of the Cybercrime Act 2024, which empowers the president to impose a levy for cybersecurity purposes, but the legality of the CBN’s unilateral action is being debated.

While cybersecurity is a global concern, the chosen approach and its potential economic impact raise questions. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) appears firm in its stance, showing no indication of yielding to public pressure. However, the wave of public disapproval and the looming threat of legal battles could ultimately prompt a reassessment of the levy. One potential outcome is a modification of the existing levy. Given the significant backlash, the CBN may consider reducing the levy or narrowing its application to specific types of transactions. This approach could alleviate the financial burden on ordinary citizens while maintaining the original intent of the levy—to bolster cybersecurity measures. The CBN could defuse some of the mounting public tension by adjusting the scope.

Another strategy to address public concerns involves introducing transparency measures. The CBN could offer a comprehensive plan detailing how the funds from the levy will be allocated and what mechanisms will be in place for oversight and accountability. This transparency might help rebuild public trust and demonstrate that the collected resources are effectively used for cybersecurity improvements. By shedding light on the fund’s management, the CBN could mitigate the scepticism surrounding the levy. Additionally, the possibility of legal challenges could impact the implementation of the cybersecurity levy. Court rulings could play a significant role in shaping the levy’s future. The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) have threatened legal actions against implementing the levy, and any court decisions could either validate or overturn the current policy. If the legal challenges succeed, the CBN might be compelled to change its approach, potentially leading to a complete revocation or a significant alteration of the levy.

In summary, the path forward for the cybersecurity levy is fraught with uncertainty. While the CBN maintains a resolute position, external factors like public outcry and legal scrutiny could drive policy changes. Whether through modification, increased transparency, or court-mandated adjustments, the next steps will be crucial in determining the impact on the economy and public sentiment. The cybersecurity levy saga serves as a reminder of the delicate balancing act governments face in the digital age. While ensuring a secure online environment is crucial, imposing additional burdens on citizens requires careful consideration and a transparent approach. Only time will tell whether Nigeria’s experiment with a cybersecurity levy will ultimately enhance its digital security or become a case study of good intentions gone awry.

After more than twenty years of clamour, Liberia has taken a big step towards addressing the horrifying atrocities committed during its long civil wars. On May 2, 2024, President Joseph Boakai signed an executive order to officially establish the Office of War and Economic Crimes Court. This is a significant turning point for Liberia as it seeks justice and reconciliation. This historic move is in response to a resolution passed by Liberia’s parliament in April 2024, which strongly supported the creation of a special criminal tribunal. With the backing of the United Nations, this court will prosecute those who are deemed most responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity that occurred during the brutal conflicts that ravaged Liberia from 1989 to 2003.

Despite overwhelming calls both nationally and internationally for accountability, Liberia had failed to prosecute anyone for the terrible human rights violations that took place during its back-to-back civil wars. This lack of action continued even after the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) released a detailed report in 2009, explicitly recommending the establishment of a war crimes tribunal. Previous administrations, including those led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and former football star George Weah, cited limited resources and security concerns as reasons for not taking action on the Truth and Reconciliations Commission’s (TRC) recommendations. As a result, a sense of impunity prevailed, with many alleged perpetrators holding influential positions in their communities and even rising to prominent political roles. One such figure is Senator Prince Y. Johnson, who gained notoriety for his involvement in a chilling video that showed him sipping beer while overseeing the brutal torture and execution of former President Samuel Doe in 1990. Initially an outspoken opponent of the war crimes court, Johnson eventually supported the parliamentary resolution that paved the way for its establishment.

While Liberia itself has yet to hold trials for the crimes committed during its civil wars, a few prosecutions have taken place abroad. Notable cases include the conviction of Mohammed Jabbateh, a rebel commander found guilty of horrific acts such as slicing open a pregnant woman to kill her unborn child, and Kunti Kamara, who was sentenced to life imprisonment in France for crimes against humanity involving systematic torture. However, the most high-profile conviction remains that of former Liberian President Charles Taylor, currently serving a 50-year sentence in the United Kingdom for war crimes committed in neighbouring Sierra Leone during the 1990s. Ironically, Taylor once campaigned with the slogan, “He killed my ma, he killed my pa, but I will vote for him anyway,” highlighting the prevalent culture of impunity that has plagued Liberia for a long time.

Despite the significance of the executive order, there are still many legal and logistical obstacles to overcome before the war crimes court can become operational. President Boakai’s directive establishes the Office of War and Economic Crimes Court, which will work towards creating a tribunal that follows international models used for similar war crimes trials. This office will also collaborate with international partners to secure funding for the court, which is crucial considering Liberia’s limited resources. Beth Van Schaack, the US envoy for global criminal justice, has expressed America’s willingness to provide financial support, but it depends on the court being appropriately established and having a solid framework. There is also uncertainty surrounding the court’s jurisdiction, the number of cases it will handle, and the timeframe for commencing proceedings. Many of the alleged perpetrators and their victims have passed away, which further complicates the pursuit of justice after such a long period.

The establishment of Liberia’s war crimes court is a game-changer for a country that is still dealing with the deep scars of its troubled past. For many victims and survivors who had lost hope of ever seeing justice, this development brings a glimmer of comfort and the possibility of closure. Adama Dempster, a human rights advocate who witnessed the horrors of child soldier recruitment and summary executions as a young student, perfectly captured the feelings of many Liberians when he said, “No one saw this coming.” His words highlight the immense importance of this initiative, which goes beyond legal proceedings and aims to foster healing and reconciliation on a national level.

Establishing the war crimes court marks a significant milestone but not without potential hurdles. It is crucial for Liberia’s leaders to stay steadfast in their commitment to this process and to resist any attempts at interference or obstruction from those with vested interests. At the same time, educating and involving Liberian citizens is vital, especially those in communities where alleged perpetrators hold sway. Building a broader understanding of the court’s purpose and the need for accountability will be critical in gaining public support and minimising potential backlash. Additionally, the country must consider providing reparations and comprehensive support services to the victims and survivors of the civil wars. Furthermore, neighbouring countries and regional bodies like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) can play a pivotal role by offering technical assistance, sharing best practices, and facilitating the extradition or transfer of accused individuals if necessary. This collaboration will help overcome logistical and legal obstacles while reinforcing the regional commitment to combating impunity and safeguarding human rights.

The establishment of Liberia’s war crimes court is a turning point in the nation’s tumultuous history. It offers hope for justice and reconciliation after years of impunity. Although there will undoubtedly be challenges on the path ahead, this endeavour stands as a testament to the resilience and determination of the Liberian people in confronting their past. It also serves as an avenue for forging a more just and peaceful future.

Cyber insecurity and fraud threaten the integrity of Nigeria’s business scene. Over the years, the rate of cybercrimes has steadily increased. From business organisations to everyday Nigerians trying to get by, no one is exempt from the cyber infestation. The vulnerability of online transactions to hackers and fraudulent misappropriation discourages investments and multinational transactions, costing Nigeria a lot of money. According to a report released in 2022 by the National Communications Commission, Nigeria loses five hundred million dollars yearly to cyber fraud.

The dangers posed by cyber insecurity are numerous. Personal account hacks, fraudulent electronic mail, forgery, embezzlement, hacking, phishing (identity theft) and online harassment are some crimes and vices that permeate the internet sphere. In 2022, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Nigeria’s anti-graft agency, announced that over 2,800 persons were arrested on allegations of cybercrimes. The threat of cyber insecurity is a hit to the nation’s integrity, hampering the growth of the business sector.

The proliferation of cybercrime in Nigeria is attributed to various factors. One major contributor is the widespread misuse of technology and a lack of robust cybersecurity measures. With increasing access to the internet and digital devices, perpetrators find ample opportunities to exploit system vulnerabilities and prey on unsuspecting individuals and organisations. Majorly the perpetrators of cybercrimes are persons of young ages, and this involvement is significantly influenced by unemployment and poverty in the country. The widespread poverty in the nation partly instigates internet fraud. Desperation to survive and succeed at all costs and the glamorisation of quick money in Nigerian media elicit sympathetic sentiments from other people who wish they could be fraudsters. Anecdotal accounts show that some parents are sympathetic to their children who indulge in internet fraud and even support these decadent ambitions.

For ordinary citizens, falling victim to cybercrimes can have devastating consequences. Identity theft can result in financial ruin and tarnished reputations, while phishing can compromise sensitive personal information. Moreover, the psychological toll of being deceived online can lead to mistrust of digital platforms and reluctance to engage in e-commerce or online banking. The surge in cybercrimes poses grave threats to large and small Nigerian businesses. Beyond financial losses resulting from fraud and data breaches, companies face reputational damage that can erode customer trust and loyalty. The disruptions caused by cyberattacks paralyse operations, leading to significant downtime and lost productivity. Small businesses, in particular, lack the resources to invest in robust cybersecurity measures, making them prime targets for cybercriminals.

In 2015, the Cybercrime Act was passed to create structures that enhance internet security, protect the government, businesses, and internet users, and sanction cyber offenders. Despite the Cybercrime Act 2015, cybersecurity has only grown in Nigeria. The failure of the Act is attributed to the inadequate sanctions it metes out to offenders. For most crimes, the Act prescribes sanctions of imprisonment or fines, arguably disproportionate to the crimes. The shortfalls of the 2015 Act led to an amendment assented to in February 2024 by the country’s incumbent President.

Despite creating the Cybercrimes (Prohibition and Prevention) Act and ratifying the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime in 2022, Nigeria is still struggling to get a hold of the increasing cybercrimes. To combat the escalating cybercrime epidemic, concerted efforts are required from various stakeholders. Nigerian authorities must prioritise cybersecurity initiatives, including establishing specialised task forces to combat online fraud and enhance digital forensics capabilities. Collaboration between law enforcement agencies, cybersecurity experts, and international partners is crucial to investigate and prosecute cybercriminals effectively. Recently, the British government launched a Thrive Online campaign to create awareness and curb cybercrimes in Nigeria after the NCC released a report revealing Nigeria’s losses to cyber insecurity. Through comprehensive cybersecurity education and awareness campaigns targeting individuals and businesses, Nigeria can build a more resilient digital ecosystem by equipping the populace with the knowledge to identify and mitigate cyber threats.

The increasing rate of cybercrimes in Nigeria poses multifaceted challenges to its populace and businesses. Without decisive action, the integrity of Nigeria’s digital infrastructure remains at risk, threatening its economic prosperity and societal well-being. By prioritising cybersecurity measures, fostering collaboration among stakeholders, and promoting digital literacy, Nigeria can mitigate the impact of cybercrimes and safeguard its digital future.