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On January 27, 2023, Nextier conducted a nationwide face-to-face poll of eligible voters in rural and urban communities in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.  The polls show Labour Party leading the voters’ preference at 37 percent of the survey respondents.  The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) secured 27 percent of the survey responses, while the All Progressives Congress secured 24 percent, with the New Nigeria Peoples Party at 6 percent.  Although Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, it is unlikely to secure an outright first-round victory.  None of the presidential candidates met both criteria for victory in the first round: a majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states.

Click here to download state level details

On January 27, 2023, Nextier conducted a nationwide face-to-face poll of eligible voters in rural and urban communities in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.  The polls show Labour Party leading the voters’ preference at 37 percent of the survey respondents.  The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) secured 27 percent of the survey responses, while the All Progressives Congress secured 24 percent, with the New Nigeria Peoples Party at 6 percent.  Although Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, it is unlikely to secure an outright first-round victory.  None of the presidential candidates met both criteria for victory in the first round: a majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states. 

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Survey Report

Press Release

Survey Methodology

Electoral Poll of Rural Communities in Nigeria

Nextier conducted a face-to-face poll of registered voters in rural communities in 12 states in Nigeria.

The independent survey by Nextier, a policy consulting firm, defined rural communities as local government areas without tertiary educational institutions. The survey, conducted in person between October 21 and 22, 2022, intentionally excluded state capitals and urban areas to ascertain the voting intention of dwellers in Nigeria’s rural communities.

The poll yielded critical insights into voter preferences and the key issues that could shape the 2023 presidential election. For instance, 76.2 percent of survey respondents stated that Nigeria is moving in the wrong direction.

As it stands, the fate and whereabouts of people in Africa who are referred to as missing persons have not received adequate national and international attention. Even though the responsibility for preventing persons from becoming missing or disappearing lies solely with the state, not much has been done by African states to safeguard their people from this tragic phenomenon. Obstacles to discharging this essential duty are linked to a lack of political will.

This edition of Nextier Special Issue interrogates the phenomenon of enforced disappearances, missing persons and missing-in-action persons in Africa and proffer recommendations to address the challenge.

Nextier, in collaboration with the West Africa-based Center for Democracy and Development (CDD) and, in close partnership with the University of Massachusetts Center for Peace, Democracy, and Development (CPDD), with financial support from the United States Department of State is pleased to announce that it is accepting applications from interested parties to attend the conference, Promoting Civic Education in the Electoral Process in Africa. This democracy conference will hold in Nairobi, Kenya, in January 2023. The conference will be a networking and training event for democracy activists and journalists from African countries scheduled to hold elections.

Since 2020, Nextier has maintained a database of violent conflicts in Nigeria. The database tracks violent conflicts such as banditry, terrorism, extra-judicial killings, farmer-herder incidents, armed robbery, cultism, piracy, secession agitation, and communal clashes. The Nextier Violent Conflict Database aims to provide detailed insights into violent conflicts in Nigeria for research, policy advocacy, development and security. It is Nextier\’s objective that reliable data should inform policy actions. Therefore, the database is a veritable source for crucial sector players and decision-makers seeking to deploy evidence-informed prevention and mitigation strategies in addressing Nigeria\’s rising violent conflicts.

Nigeria\’s Security Situation Analysis Report presents tracked data from Nextier\’s Violent Conflict Database from January 2021 to June 2022 (18 months). There are two sections in the report (Part A and B). Part A covers the period from January to December 2021, while Part B covers the period from January to June 2022. Charts are used to analyse the tracked data, and statements are backed by pertinent literature. The paper highlights Nigeria\’s existential security concerns and offers workable answers to the country\’s security and development problems.

Nextier is committed to expanding policy discussions to help build the society we want to live in. We encourage you to look out for more of our thought-provoking publications on this topic and other security, peace, and development-related topics in Nigeria and the rest of West Africa.

Watch the report launch video here

On the 30th of August 2022, Nextier launched the Nigeria Security Situation Analysis Report. The report is based on tracked data from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database between January 2021 to June 2022. The in-person and virtual event brought together experts and relevant stakeholders to interrogate Nigeria\’s armed conflict trajectory. There were two-panel sessions. While the first panel was titled \”Banditry and Terrorism: What are we Missing?\” the second panel was \”Achieving Security Stability and Secure Public Spaces in Nigeria\”.

The rationale of the report launch was to provide a platform for reform-minded professionals at the highest level of policy development and programme implementation to engage in rigorous conversations on the tracked data from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database. The conversation aimed to advance Nigeria\’s governance, security and development outlook.

In February 2022, when Chukwuma Soludo was sworn in as the elected Governor of Anambra state, his recurrent mantra was to hit the ground running from day one. But like most development objectives, security and stability are major prerequisites. Anambra state and other southeast states are home to gunmen violence and persistent pro-Biafra secessionism. As a result, the region has moved from relative normalcy to a largely undeterminable security atmosphere. Since May 2022, data from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database recorded 19 incidents and 32 fatalities by the activities of security forces and criminal gangs.

Reoccurring sit-at-home compliance, gunmen attacks and razing of public infrastructure is undoubtedly a clog in the new Governor\’s wheel. Mondays are widely observed as sit-at-home days in the region, even as the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) had announced its discontinuity. Non-compliant residents often face attacks by hoodlums enforcing stay-at-home orders. In March 2022, Governor Soludo ordered workers to resume work on Mondays despite fears of attacks. The Governor\’s effort to restore peace in the state and the region, in general, is shown in the creation of the Truth, Justice and Peace Committee and the visit to IPOB\’s incarcerated leader, Nnamdi Kanu, who is facing treason charges. The committee is positioned to interface with the Federal government on behalf of \”prisoners of conscience\”.

The Governor\’s peace efforts have not ended the state or region\’s episodes of fatal attacks. Although the days of stability may be premature, other factors may be playing out in the region. For instance, the recurrent attacks and IPOB\’s denial of involvement poses three theories. First, IPOB is deploying an \’attack and deny\’ approach. Most violent attacks in the region are on government facilities, public infrastructure, security personnel, non-compliant residents, perceived government workers and political elites. These victims largely represent the Nigerian state, which IPOB aims to secede from. Second, new elements of criminality may have been created in the region as security agencies and IPOB continues to trade blames. The southeast region\’s uncertain security ecosystem and its politicisation have created a smokescreen for new non-state armed groups. Third, a faction of IPOB, which Nnamdi Kanu appear not to support, has emerged. IPOB\’s leader\’s condemnation of the attacks during Governor\’s Soludo visit supports the three theories.

While the fogs around the southeast violence may take time to clear up, the Nigerian state and the region\’s stakeholders must get involved in peacebuilding and securitisation efforts. Southeast governors must form a collaborative front to end the region\’s woes. The collaboration should involve state-level promotion of security. The Ebube-agu regional security framework should be institutionalised and empowered across states to support formal security structures. Rising violence should lead to increased securitisation. Although the pro-Biafra secession struggles may complicate this effort, the involvement of the Ebube-agu will bring a sense of local ownership to policing in the region.

As Governor Soludo appear to be leading non-kinetic peace approaches, other southeast governors should rally around to establish a more coordinated approach. Gunmen violence in the region is ubiquitous. Therefore, collaborative efforts will be more holistic and impactful. Consultations with agitating groups will promote more robust dialogues and help the government, especially security agencies, clear the uncertainties around the region\’s security challenges. Considering pro-secession struggles, which have been intricately mixed with violent conflicts in the region, local engagements will help restore the government\’s authority and support. It will also counteract the propaganda of government-sanctioned attacks and victimisation of pro-Biafra supporters. Furthermore, the Nigerian state should commit to a speedy and fair trial of IPOB\’s leader as prolonged court proceedings may further fuel agitations and unrest in the southeast. Restoring normalcy in the gunmen\’s hotbed requires government and the regional stakeholders\’ tactical involvement in peacebuilding and securitisation.

As a security, peace and development consulting firm, Nextier SPD seeks to provide insights into the state of insecurity in Nigeria as its input to the continued efforts to impact security policy and programming in Nigeria. This study aims to understand the state of insecurity on Nigerian roads. Data on road security would provide insights into where and how security forces focus security efforts.

Cultism and gang-related activities are not unique to Nigeria. It is a growing security threat that is prevalent among Nigeria’s youth. For decades, Nigerian schools, especially tertiary institutions, have been the breeding grounds for violent cults and gangs. The cults have moved from the tertiary institutions into the streets in direct negation of the founding father\’s philosophy of the original confraternities. The cults infiltrate residential neighborhoods and have started recruiting members from primary and secondary schools. Many of these cult members are introduced to hard drug use and graduated to weapon use.

Data from Nextier SPD Violent Conflict Database shows that in the twelve months to September 2021, Nigeria recorded 38 cultist incidents resulting in 83 deaths, six injured persons, and five kidnapped persons. Except for five dead security agents, all the other casualties were civilians.

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